Day 83: !$@$#%@

-$43.84 $1,288.02

Oh man today was a wild day, I haven’t seen such single pip movement with sheer force and power. Usually price will move little by little but today, pips were long and strong. We had multiple mixed news releases early in the morning which kinda added to the confusion. While Unemployment claims and Employment Cost Index came out positive, Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending came out short. Initially the news drove the dollar north, however, throughout the day, it was rather whip-saw like. I blame the Fed’s indecisive statement yesterday along with the confusing news announcement for today’s radical moves.

Anyways, the overall global markets are very sensitive right now. The Dow closed almost -200 points today while it was identical for the Dax a day ago. The markets are far from normal and it’ll take some time for it to reach equilibrium. Trade safely.


Day 82: Love/Hate the Feds

$58.35 $1,331.86

Today was a very easy day. Along with dollar’s bearish movement this week, today’s 0.2% GDP number was absolutely horrid. To put that into perspective, GDP in January was 2.6%, Oct 2014 was 3.5% and July 2014 was 4.0%. With the morning GDP embarrassment I rode the dollar all the way down and was just shy of achieving triple digit profit for the afternoon. With EUR, GBP, and JPY making new highs, it came to an end when the unexciting and neutral FOMC statement released.

With the handsome morning profits I made, I was eager to finish strong for the day and had short dollar positions open. In my mind, there was no way the data dependent Yellen could possibly hint a rate hike anytime soon. However, to avoid huge shock to the market, the Fed’s statement was rather disappointing. The market translated the neutral statement by buying the dollar. I guess neutral news gives strength to the dollar when everyone was expecting a dovish statement.

I also participated in New Zealand RBNZ Bank statement at 5:00 and got some quick profits in from the dovish release.

Just want to add this possible USD/JPY long term trade I’m looking at now. In the picture below, you can see that the USD/JPY has formed a heads and shoulder pattern. Also, the two red lines indicates a strong support which prices bounced off multiple times. If and when price crosses the red lines, I’m predicting we’ll see USD/JPY reaching 117’s or even possibly 116’s.

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Day 81: Downhill for the dollar

$13.70 $1,273.51

Wow, the dollar still can’t seem to catch a break, just keeps going lower and lower. Anyone who was short dollar, long any other currency got a hefty payday this week and last week. CB consumer confidence came out lower than expected, which fueled the bears even more. I’m very curious to see how tomorrow FOMC meeting will turn out; will Fed’s raise interest rates on June and launch the dollar to the moon, or will the doves push the dollar into the point of no return. In addition to the U.S FOMC meeting, we’ll important New Zealand news from the RBNZ and we’ll see some news from Japan.

Tomorrow will be a busy day, the markets are hinting for a dovish FOMC statement so I’m skeptical for now. Can’t wait to see tomorrow’s results.

Day 80: New week, fresh start

$14.36 $1,259.81

Last week I was absolutely destroyed by the market. Anyways, it’s a new week  and I’m ready to finish the month with a banger. I was surprised today to see the bears continuing to push the dollar further south. GBP/USD made a 7 week high, EUR/USD creeping up, and USD/CAD haven’t been this low since January. We saw some push by the dollar initially, but the bulls were defeated and the dollar gave in. I was quick this time to switch from long to short dollar and was able to finish the day with a profit, finally!

I’m ready for the turbulence we’ll see in the market this week as important news will be out, especially he FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Will the dollar see a rebound or will it continue in free fall, we’ll find out.

Day 79: Brutal Week

-$20.94 $1,245.45

This week has been brutal. The market has been behaving a little different, and the dollar just keeps continuing to fall. Next week will be interesting to see the FOMC meeting and how that’ll change the overall sentiment. Overall, not happy one bit about this week’s performance. I’ll need a miracle to help me recover for the end of the month.

Day 78: Oh boy…

-$156.64 $1,266.39

Wow, brutal day. I did not expect the dollar to have such a big downward move, it really goes to show how mercurial the markets can be. It started with the lower than expected Unemployment claims, then followed by the disappointing Flash Manufacturing PMI and New Homes Sales. When the dollar began to drop after the news announcement, I did not expect the news to tip the dollar into a massive free fall. After all, the Europeans PMI’s overnight came out mediocre as well, so I thought it would balance out? Anyways, I panicked and then started to leverage myself which ended ugly. I should’ve closed positions and reevaluated but as dollar dropped more and more I kept telling myself “Okay, now it will reverse”, but it never did.

Also I learned about a regulation called FIFO I was not aware of. It means First-in, First-out which basically means you have to sell your first positions before you can close out any other positions. So lets say I went long EUR/USD for 5K contracts, then a 2nd contract for 10k EUR/USD. I would not be able to close the 10K contract until I close the first 5K one. Not to use it as an excuse, but this took a serious chunk out of my capital today and for Tuesday. While I tried closing and opening positions to catch top or bottom, my broker was closing my first positions which was screwing me up. I noticed something was weird but didn’t actually know what was happening until I investigated. I called up my broker and they later explained the FIFO regulations.

For now, I’m pretty beat. Can’t believe I let myself lose so much in one day. I have to focus and re-analize the markets for tomorrow.

Day 77: Confusion in the markets

-$19.17 $1,423.03

Dam two losing days back to back. I can’t be too hard on myself today as the markets came into an awkward standstill. There was no momentum at all, as soon as the markets gained movement, it went right back the other direction. My guess is the Grexit situation, Gold volatility, and other unexplainable economic phenomenon that made the markets coil into a state of  equilibrium. I tried my best to hop onto a momentum leg but no luck, just not enough volatility today. There’s always tomorrow.

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Today’s movement of the GBP/USD. Where’s the movement?

Day 76: Defeat

-$116.76 $1,442.20

Well that ends a 15 day winning streak, really wanted to go for an all day positive streak for a month. I’m a little disappointed to say how these past few days, I’v been making stupid mistakes. Mistakes I should’ve avoided and mistakes that actually costed a lot of foregone profits.

Today started off just as a regular day and on a dollar dip, I went long. All of a sudden, the dollar went lower, and lower and lower. I assumed it was a dip and stacked positions of long dollar. It wasn’t until the afternoon I realized I was close to a margin call and the dollar showed no sign of a recovery. I was in that uncomfortable position where I had to make a split decision on whether to: A. Close all positions, face an uncomfortable loss and switch my positions or B. Hold and pray for a reversal; I decided on the latter and stealthily closed and added positions as I was desperately chasing dollar bottom.

In total, I was about -$200 at the worse of my day. There was a time where I thought the dollar finally bottomed and I added more positions, then the dollar continued to fall. As dollar bottomed out again, I questioned whether to add more capital from my checkings account to add position on this reversal I’v been waiting for. But I hesitated as I already got an emergency life line this month. I was going to ride it out and hope for the best. At the end of the day I went from -$170 gross profit and held it to    -$40, could’ve sold at -$20 but lost the opportunity, never went lower than that as liquidity suddenly dried up. Although I was able to mitigate the losses on the positions I was holding, it was the damage of catching bottom that stacked up in losses.

I guess you win some and loss some. But I guarantee I’ll make this loss up with a home-run day within this month. It won’t be revenge trading, I’ll just focus and stop making my mistakes.

Day 75: Faked out

$0.28 $1,558.96

Today should’ve been a good day but I chickened out and called it quits too early. I admit, my initial start today was terrible. I began by going long dollar before the markets opened and made some profit. Continued the same trend when the markets opened until I realized the dollar was in a correction. Luckily I was able to escape my losing positions and switch sides from long to short dollar until I was faked out. When I switched from buying dollar to selling dollar, I had thought the correction was over and got faked out by a doji candle stick.

I then quickly switched back to my initial long dollar but then got trapped as dollar continued it’s correction. I was relatively calm as my P/L went against me because I knew the correct trend, however, I’d be lying if I say I didn’t feel uncomfortable. The correction lasted longer than I thought and as afternoon approached, volume dropped immediately. I was stuck with negative positions as price suddenly hit what felt like, rush hour traffic. Price was slow to move with little movement. I ended up calling quits as I immediately hit break even, even though I had my target predictions where price will land. I left for lunch and came back to see price hitting my targets and then some. Don’t quit so easily, always play till the end.

Day 74: Another mistake

$28.97 $1,558.68

Ahhh, just looking at the graph for 8:30 makes me sick. I woke up in the middle of the night and decided to check my phone for the economic calendar. Still half asleep, it looked like there wasn’t any important news and I went back to sleep. I turn on CNBC in the morning even when I’m in bed and I see the headline “Beaking News: CPI 0.2%”. There was a news announcement??? It was too late for me to react then, I had missed out on a huge movement.

These news announcements are big power moves that I live for and I missed it. Especially after yesterday’s mistake, I wasn’t in the best of mood. Luckily I managed to pull through and end the day with a good profit. For next week, my focus and attention will be spot on.

Also, check USD/CAD’s movement today after Canada’s CPI and Core Retail numbers, it made a huge spike down but dollar punched it right back up.

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