Day 103: I believe in the dollar!

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So the low GDP number was no surprise, however, it wasn’t as low as everyone feared. Q1 GDP came out to -0.7% vs -0.8% exp. Many banks were expecting something as low as -1% or even lower. Usually the market would’ve moved significantly from a GDP number, this time it really didn’t. We know our first quarter was transitory and things weren’t going to quickly pick up, it’s only Q1. With that said, many economists and banks are looking forward to a better Q2 and beyond. We also have a interest rate hike to look forward to. Hopefully the up coming NFP number can come out promising.

All in all, the dollar did rise a bit today but not as much as I wanted. I will be holding my position from Thursday for the weekend. Will post updates.

Day 102: Bullsh*t!

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Whoa whoa whoa, what happened to the dollar bulls???

Today was a very weird day, the dollar was inverse relationship to economic datas. If you’ve been following my blogs, you know that I trade news. However, today was a bit strange. We had two important data numbers today, Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales. Unfortunately, the Unemployment Claims came out higher than expected, which should’ve drove the dollar lower, but the dollar actually gained strength from high unemployment. Strange enough, it had the same reaction to the better than expected Home Sales number. It went down from a great number. In fact, it was so great that I was almost sure it was going to rally from it. The Pending Home Sales was 3.4% vs 0.8% Exp!!! What a huge difference!

Not sure what happened today, but the bulls definitely disappointed me. There were some unplanned Euro and Japanese news, but whatever it was, dollar gained random bear strength throughout the day.

With that said, I’m still holding onto my long dollar positions. I refuse to end the day with a minus today. Tomorrow’s GDP day, and hopefully we can see some greens. I’ll report back tomorrow.

Day 101: What’s up Greece?

$26.75 $1,748.27

We had another dollar rally during European markets, before NY opening. Disappointed how it didn’t happen while I was awake. Either way, I tried to go long dollar, hoping the rally will continue but found no luck. In fact, Euro had a nice big push early due to positive news in Greece. Luckily it was Euro that only spiked up and JPY and GBP was still controlled over the dollar.

After the sudden Euro rally, I attempted to short and found quick profits. Overall, today’s trading day was quiet and calm. I don’t think it’s the end of the dollar rally anytime soon, unless we see Europe recovering really fast or have bad US economic data. Just look out for potential dollar rally’s and be careful if you’re on the short side.

Day 100: USD/JPY 8 year high!

-$5.78 $1,721.52

Congratulations on USD/JPY making an 8 year high! This morning it touched 123 and went for more.

Today, Core durable goods numbers came out exactly as expected: .5%. This was enough to drive the data driven dollar upwards. Today wasn’t nearly as exciting as last week, the markets had a slow start from a long weekend. I had decent profit form the morning on going long dollar, however, lost it in the end due to my greed. No worries.

From the way the markets behaved today, there was definitely a paradigm shift. The stock markets had a major down day, and the dollar soared high during the weekend. It means that the markets are anticipating an interest rate hike. Anyone who is on the short side of dollar, just be careful!!! The only change I can see from the bull dollar trend is if we see a horrible GDP number on Friday. If it comes out much worse than expected, there can be a pullback. Other than that, there’s not much that can stop the bulls anytime soon.

Day 99: Bull dollar!

$30.58 $1,727.30

What a great week to be long dollar. As I stated yesterday, I saw a dollar rallying coming soon. We’re slowly seeing better economic numbers for the U.S and a rate hike is slowly approaching.

The day started off with a monster dollar rally early in the morning due to CPI numbers. CPI came out just as expected at .1% and Core CPI was better than expected, .3% vs .2% exp. I certainly didn’t expect the magnitude of the rally to be that strong, but man did the dollar shoot up to the moon. Yesterday, the dollar had little effect on negative economic numbers, and today we saw how strong the dollar reacted to a better than expected number.

Aside from the CPI’s, Yellen had a speech in Rhode Island later in the afternoon. Long story short, she seems optimistic on the growth of the U.S economy and sees a rate hike within this year; of course if the data permits.

Anyone who is still pessimistic on the dollar should be careful when shorting. Just like I saw yesterday, U.S is next in queue for the first rate hike amongst the Central Banks. With that said, I’m certainly long dollar for a while. Unless we see a series of mediocre data, I can’t see anything stopping the dollar.

Day 98: I smell a Dollar rally

$5.59 $1,696.72

Today was a rather interesting day. There were several different numbers that were announced today: Unemployment, Existing Home Sales, and Philly Fed manufacturing Index; all, expect Unemployment were below average. It was interesting to see how the dollar wasn’t affected much by the disappointing news, almost how it didn’t matter anymore. Especially since the FOMC meeting yesterday, maybe the dollar is driven more by the Fed’s rate hike.

You see, there’s only a limited space the Euro can rally over the dollar. Although the numbers in Europe may be better than U.S, the U.S is still hawkish over ECB, BOE, and other banks. If there was a queue of banks that were preparing for a rate hike, U.S is first on line. No matter how great Europe is doing, Draghi is set on continuing QE while the Feds are preparing for the ideal time for a rate hike. The hike can happen this year, or next but it will happen sooner or later. This leads me to believe that the dollar will continue it’s rally, based on the anticipation of the rate hike.

Day 97: Markets not surprised

$71.23 $1,691.13

So today was a slow day as the markets were awaiting the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The main headline was about an unlikely rate hike for June. The dovish news however gave an interesting reaction to the markets. The dollar predictably fell sharp against the dovish news, until it quickly made a U-turn an spiked up making highs, then fell again making new lows. What a volatile moment indeed.

The way I played this announcement was shorting dollar from the initial news release. I held my position despite the rising dollar, and profited as I patiently waited for dollar to fall. I stacked my short positions as the dollar kept getting higher and higher. I knew the dollar had to fall because of the negative news.

Not sure what made the dollar jump from the announcement, however, the markets seemed unsurprised by the Feds deciding that a June hike was unlikely. With mediocre US growth and lackluster economic numbers, it wasn’t hard to foresee a dovish statement today.

Day 96: Calm before the FOMC

$6.41 $1,619.90

Not much to talk about today. We started off with a higher than expected Building Permits number of 1.14M vs 1.06M Exp. The data pushed the already bull dollar up for the day. Unfortunately, that was the most exciting movement that happened today. Dollar stayed in the top range and consolidated, never came back down nor went higher. The reason being,¬†tomorrow’s FOMC.

The Markets are getting quiet and ready to see what the short term future holds for the dollar. Any hawkish news will push the dollar up, which may end the falling dollar. And any dovish news may push the dollar back down and end the bull “pullback” we’ve been seeing. Important aspects to look out for would be any hints of rate hike, unemployment and inflation issues, exports, all that good stuff. Tomorrow will surely bring more action than today.

Day 95: JACKPOT SUCESS!

$222 $1,613.49

Wow does it feel good waking up to a large lump sum of money. On Friday, you saw that for the first time in my blog, I held onto my positions over the weekend. I’ll be frank, it was nerve-racking indeed. However, had I not held on, I would’ve had a pretty big negative day on Friday. My analysis told me the EUR and GBP was overbought and that the dollar was about to burst onto the upside. I was positive the dollar was oversold due to news and not fundamentals. Thankfully, everything ended well.

With that in mind, I’ll be long dollar this week, unless the upcoming data tells me otherwise. There are predictions among Wall Street that dollar drop is soon to end, and the Euro will eventually fall. Let’s keep our eyes open for the drop. Moral of the story, simply, never give up.

Day 94: Dollar drop!

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Doing something different today, going to hold onto my trade for the weekend. It’s a little nerve wrecking and scary, but I feel like EUR/USD will drop for next week.

We had an interesting situation today. The dollar had a upward movement since yesterday as Draghi announced his continuation of QE. Unfortunately what pushed the dollar rather forcibly today was the Preliminary consumer sentiment of 88.6 vs 95.8 exp. I made a mistake to be long dollar today, and was destroyed by the falling dollar by the unexpected¬†news. I was trying to catch top of EUR/USD but failed as dollar made lower lows throughout the afternoon. However, I’m going to hope for the best that we’ll see a drop in EUR/USD. I’ll update this post on Monday.

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Current forecast of EUR/USD. Cmon Euro drop!