Day 230: Post Thanksgiving Food Coma

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Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and ate to their heart’s content. Thanksgiving’s a great holiday for eating, however, it’s also a good day to reflect and look back on your blessings in life. I’m so thankful for my loving family, supportive friends, and also my Forex career. Although trading Forex hasn’t been bringing me a tremendous amount of wealth, I’m grateful for my slow growth.

Today has been a slow Monday, but that does not mean it will lag on for the rest of the week. This week will feature the Payroll number for November, Yellen will be speaking, Draghi will also be speaking, Oil inventory numbers, and lots of data. Dollar can break new highs or be set for a pullback. Although I didn’t trade today due to slow movements, I’m expecting the market to start picking up tomorrow.

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Day 229: Dollar slacking before the Holiday

Profit: $0.50 Total: $896.49

The dollar decided to take an early slack before Thanksgiving. The dollar been putting in work during London, which I’m regretting because I missed a shorting opportunity for EUR/USD. Although now that dollar is pulling back, it gives an opportunity to short the pair at a better price, however, it’s near such a big support. I’m not sure if it can break though lower without any news. Even though this goes against major macro economics right now, I think at a technical point, I’ll be long dollar for a short term; but my stance can quickly change.

I missed the EUR/USD short during London so I tried to short it again during NY with no luck. I made up my lost profit by shorting the dollar, which felt weird. I’m not even going to attempt trading in the afternoon today due to low liquidates. For now, I’m going to see how far the EUR/USD retraces, and see ultimately how long the pullback will last.

Check out the 2 year low EUR/USD is near. I’m not sure if it can break without a catalyst.

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Day 228: Turkey Trouble

Profit: -$9.59 Total: $895.99

There’s some tension stirring up in Turkey, the country, between Russia. The latter country flew a plane beyond it’s limits into Turkey’s territory which eventually got shot down after multiple warnings. Putin’s definitely the last person you would want to upset and shooting down his plane and pilots is an easy way to do it. NATO is involved to keep things calm and there are extreme talks for for a possible WWIII. How will this affect the markets? Keep an eye out for Oil. The U.S stock market had a good bounce, and the dollar had not much affect today. Although a WWIII is jumping the gun too quick, I can see how this small problem can potentially escalade into something ugly.

I recovered a good amount of losses from my account from the dollar post FOMC reversal. Nothing interesting happened today expect for the GBP/USD further dropping. I’m still very bull dollar, but I’m expecting the markets to be pretty calm until the end of this week. Another thought that comes to mind is if current global tensions can halt our expected rate hike. So as global tension rises, it does affect my outlooks on the bull dollar…

Day 227: Short trading week

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This week will be a short week markets and possibly a slow one. Thanksgiving is on Thursday and I’m pretty sure the markets won’t be as volatile throughout the week, although I may be wrong.

I held onto my EUR/USD short over the weekend which got me extra profits. USD/CAD short also caught my eye as oil had a jump from news in Saudi Arabia. For today, I didn’t trade aggressively even though Yellen spoke today. EUR/USD shorts were just ended in a break even, which I will hold.

Day 226: It pays to hold onto trades

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Boy am I glad to see the dollar bounce back, but most importantly, I stayed confident and calm during the pullback. In yesterday’s post, I said the EUR/USD wasn’t going much higher and the drop in the dollar was a simple pullback. Had I panicked and sold all my long dollar positions, I would be left with a  huge draw down. Draghi definitely helped push the Euro much lower when he spoke today with a dovish tone. I’m eager to see how December will play out and ultimately how the markets will respond if the Feds do raise rates and ECB extends QE.

The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pretty much dropped to the same level as pre FOMC statement, but I’m eyeing out the other pairs to drop as well. I’m expecting USD/JPY to bounce back to 124’s and eyeing AUD/USD & NZD/USD to drop. I’m actually betting that the dollar will continue it’s bullish course next week, which will result in a lower EUR/USD. I’m holding onto a couple trades for the weekend, and that’s all long dollar.

Check out the bounce followed by a trend continuation. I’m hoping it can break through that bottom support in next week.

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Day 225: Dollar correction or crashing?

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This dollar correction seems to confuse many traders. What I’m seeing is not a sign to go long EUR/USD  but rather a opportunity to short it at a higher price. The dollar has been on an marathon to break new highs and needed a break. Fundamentally nothing has changed; the Fed’s stance and outlook is still very hawkish and points to a December rate hike. The dollar correction was most likely a correction in the charts on a technical scale. Although I’m surprised how strong the pullback was, especially with AUD/USD, I’m still convinced it’s only a minor pullback and not the dollar crashing.

I’m still holding onto my long dollar positions. I added a couple shorts when the EUR/USD and GBP/USD began to hit resistance. Once the FOMC statement shock eases into the market, I think the dollar will continue back on it’s rally. The next big data to look for is the November pay roll and if that’s a good one, expect the dollar to break highs!

Here’s the dollar pulling back, but looks like it hit a support.

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Day 224: Confusing FOMC reaction

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What a bipolar day for the dollar! The FOMC minutes meeting was scheduled for 2:00 p.m. As the market awaited the meeting, the dollar had a nice and steady strength to it. The market was definitely expecting a hawkish FOMC statement and it showed in the weakness of EUR/USD.

Things started to get weird and took a 180 degree turn when the statement released. The news wasn’t anything special or necessarily new. The Feds were still eyeing December for a rate hike as long as data permits. The probability of a rate hike still remains around 80%, some evening saying that the Fed’s have no chance but to raise rates to sustain their credibility. I was legitimately shocked when the EUR/USD bounced and the dollar dropped hard.

I’m not sold on the EUR/USD and other currency pairs rallying off against the dollar. Perhaps the markets was anticipating a more aggressive and hawkish tone, but the statement seemed fine for me. I’m holding onto my short EUR/USD in the hopes that it will continue it’s path south.

Today’s crazy movement in the EUR/USD.

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Day 223: New lows for EUR/USD

Profit: -$7.81 Total: $905.58

The EUR/USD continues to get destroyed while making new lows. I’ll post an illustration below, and take a look at how close it is to it’s year lows. Once year low breaks, then comes parity, then comes a Euro that’s weaker than the dollar. December is slowly approaching and the dollar is rising up fast. I can see how the Feds would start to worry if the dollar continues to rise up so quickly before the December meeting. For now, data is staying consistent with expectation and the upcoming holidays should fuel some consumer spending.

I lost a good amount of my profits today by shamefully longing the EUR/USD. The dollar got tired during London and I thought it was pulling back. Unfortunately, the dollar continued to push the euro lower and lower. There is a FOMC minutes meeting tomorrow which can definitely affect the dollar. Most likely, the statements will be hawkish for the dollar, but nothing’s guaranteed.

Look how close EUR/USD is approaching it’s year’s lows.

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Day 222: Prayers go out to France

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On Friday, the market closed with the unfortunate news in Paris. No on really knew what was going on at the time. As the public was waiting for more coverage, the death toll rising, the attack became much more serious. The world got together to express sympathy for those who lost their innocent lives. My prayer goes out to the families and the country.

After such a chaotic and tragic event in Europe, I was expecting to see the chaos translate into he markets. Fortunately, the attack did not reach the markets and in fact, strength investors. Our stock market rallied up, and even the DAX stood it’s strength. The forex market was rather quiet despite the global chaos.

I took trades in shorting the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. The EU continued it’s downward path and EJ formed a heads and shoulders trade which I’ll be holding till tomorrow. One other trade I’m holding as well is USD/CAD. Oil today had a 3%+ rise and I feel like it has more room to go.

Below is a 1:1 clone movement followed by a double touch with a wick rejection. This type of price action has a high percentage for a reversal. I can see oil testing up to the horizontal box around $43-$44.

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Day 221: Dollar moves higher but couldn’t hold

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Womb! The retails number disappointed the dollar bulls; people are just not shopping enough! Department store stocks are plunging and are facing big time trouble. Nevertheless, the bulls still took over the first half of NY session disregarding the poor morning data. Although the dollar soared higher, it’s momentum soon faded and the dollar gently went lower and lower. I’m just imagining how strong the rally would’ve been had retails didn’t disapoint.

Our morning data wasn’t strong, but I’m still holding onto my long dollar positions. Stocks are still falling, oil is still dropping, and I still believe the dollar has much more potential. This week wasn’t the best for the dollar, but I think a new week should fuel the dollar once again. Lets go bulls!