From here on out I may not post anything new till after new years once the markets come alive. Nothing interesting is happening nor am I trading. However, I’ll keep a very small long USD/JPY position open for a while. Happy Holidays and have a great New Years everyone!
Today was a very slow Monday, which isn’t surprising due to it being a pre holiday week. Nothing major has happened but it still seems like the Dollar is struggling to find it’s groove. My biggest loser was my long USD/JPY which failed to bounce off it’s support and plunged… I’m not expecting anything exciting to happen until next year.
My other trades got stopped out and I’m left with my EUR/JPY short. The Euro has been gaining strength recently and I moved the stop much closer. If this stops out, I’ll just stick to scalping until liquidity rises again.
The market still looks like it’s digesting the news from FOMC. Dollar’s still up and down with no sense of real direction. My forecast for 2016 is still bullish Dollar just because theres not much other things to invest in. Although I’m not sure if the bulls will kick in anytime soon, I’m going to be very cautious on trading till after New years. Volatility will be low and traders are probably more worried about the holidays rather than trading.
I’m still holding onto a couple positions open, including long GBP/USD. GBP/USD has been in a nice range and should expect a bounce from the bottom channel. I’ll be hedging my long GBP/USD with a long USD/JPY and short EUR/USD trade. Let’s see what the future holds for Dollar in 2016.
GBP/USD hitting bottom channel, playing a bounce here.
The decision has been made! 0.25% raise in the interest rate with a good balance of dove and hawk follow through. I just want to acknowledge what a great job Yellen and her team has accomplished so far. It was very impressive to see a non volatile market with the EUR/USD ranging in a 100 pip zone. The Feds has done a good job not surprising the market and supported it with a good healthy dove-hawk balanced demeanor.
After yesterday’s statement, I’m not too sure on Dollar’s short term direction still. The FX market was well contained but actually seems positive for the Dollar bulls. I’ll be very cautious trading this week and see how the market takes in the news. My running AUD/USD long was hit right on target before sloping down and crushing the support. Although Dollar seems bullish now, I’m still not entirely convinced.
Took profit right on target. Look at that solid break in support.
It’s finally FOMC day! Many are expecting somewhere along the lines of a dovish hike. It’s going to be difficult to not hike with all the talks built up to this moment. I can’t really see the statement being too bull for dollar unless it’s a 0.5% hike with a hawkish followup. So for now, I’ll be looking into shorting the dollar, unless of course Yellen surprises us.
I am however planning to hold this AU long position. It’s a great support area with multiple tests and failure to break. If all goes to plan, Dollar will slip, Gold will rise which will be bull for AU.
This was the type of movement I was expecting late last week and Monday! I wanted to see the Dollar get excited for the up coming rate hike and soar through the moving averages. I was surprised to see the Dollar find such monstrous strength today with the bulls so quite this month. I’m going to stop trading early and may not even trade tomorrow. Volatility is a scary double edged sword.
I closed out my GU short trade way to early this morning which left some (a lot) of pips on the table. I was not expecting the Dollar to fly this strong nor expected the Pound to give in so quick. The market is definitely excited for tomorrow’s potential rate hike. Although I may not trade tomorrow, I’m so excited to see how the market reacts. Make sure to pay extra detail to the FOMC statement.
There she goes. One of the worst feeling in trading, other than losing, is closing out your position too early.
My short GU trade that I posted on Friday was a success! Unfortunately, I couldn’t make enough profit to make back my losses from my stupid NZD/USD short trade last week. Due to my idiotic trading during high volatility, I will stay very cautious this week and may not even trade at all. FOMC is less than 2 days away and this falling dollar is worrying me. Right now my predictions is a 0.25 basis point increase but with a dovish statement. If I do trade during this week, it’ll be quick scalps.
My short from last week is really hurting me. Although the RBNZ cut their rates, the currency still rallied. I got burned and I know better not trade during those high volume sessions. In the past, I loved trading during high volatility such as the payroll datas, but I finally learned my lesson. This week I’ll be very cautious and will be in and out of my trades.
A mixture of data came out today, which were all close or higher than expected. Although I’ve been screaming out Dollar bull all week, I think the new week will definitely give a fresh boost to the Dollar. The first to fall was AUD/USD, and EUR/USD, GBP/USD got a new rejection at the top, while other dollar pairs look ready to bounce. The FOMC pressure scheduled for Wednesday will definitely give the dollar some boost. My only fear is that the outlook on Fed’s plan after the first hike will be dove; which will create a whole mess in it’s own. With the Dollar’s recent bearish behavior, I wouldn’t be surprised if the bulls get demolished after FOMC’s hike, if they have a dovish demeanor.
With that said, I am holding onto my long dollar positions over the weekend. I think the dollar will have a bounce on Sunday opening and will continue till Wednesday. EUR/USD got rejected forming a double top, USD/JPY is back in 120’s and GBP/USD hit a trend line resistance. Lets go bulls!
Chart below is showing GBP/USD hitting a trend line resistance. I’m hoping the Dollar bulls to wake up next week, even if it’s just monetary.
The dollar finally had a positive rise today despite the troubles it had during this week. Unfortunately the majority of movement happened post NY session. I couldn’t catch the main move because I kept getting stopped out by my conservative-style of trading during NY. Pretty much the market coiled during NY, then the bulls finally took off when liquidity was low after NY closed. Not sure if the Dollar gained strength due to an array of data releasing tomorrow, or because of the FOMC next week, or it just got it’s mojo back.
It’s great to see the Dollar back and grinding. I’m feeling it will have more room to go during London but may or may not reversal after 8:30 if the data comes out short. I’m also thinking dollar will continue it’s rally after next week. The FOMC pressure of the Fed’s hiking should bring out the hiding bulls; be in the look out to catch it.
Okay, the dollar is weak right now, really weak; a one-month low weak. The USD/JPY dropped from 123’s to 121’s and EUR/USD back touching 1.10’s. Chaos in oil continues as the equities market remains to be volatile. I’m not sure if this is the mess pre FOMC brings, but it’s an ugly time to be a trader right now.
I was having an off day today but not a too bad one. I finished the day slightly under breakeven until the New Zealand Policy Statement released. Before the data, many analysts were betting that the RBNZ were cutting rates. It was around 3:00 p.m and I was done trading, but I thought this would be a good opportunity to make back some of my lost capital. The statement released and the quarter point cut was spot on. The Policy Statement was pretty dovish as well. Easy trade to short the New Zealand Dollar, right?
The price initially spiked up, then down. I entered the trade to short the NZD/USD. The RBNZ just cut rates and Feds are due to raise rates, I thought this thing was going to tank. As the noises in the market drove price up and down, I stacked my position as price continued to go against me. In the end, I was left defeated as the currency rose over 100 pips… My capital once drained again… wtf, NZD.
This is going got be my last attempt to short the NZD/USD overnight, I have a small position I’ll be holding. If this doesn’t hold I’ll just accept defeat. I’m also in a short EUR/USD I’ll hold as well.