Day 348: Dollar at a healthy growth

Profit: $14.68 Total: $1,276.62

I thought it was going to be a slow day due to the long weekend, but boy was I wrong. Market was alive thanks to the dollar bulls. There were a couple news data releases but nothing too major. The dollar is at a healthy growth in the promise of a rate hike.

I was hesitant on longing the dollar because of it’s initial dip from Monday, but I think the bulls were sleeping in from their Memorial day weekend. Initially the dollar bulls were weak and slow for NY opening, but once momentum got it going, movement sped up real quick. I was able to quickly short the GBP/USD and catch a good amount of pips. Looks like dollar is at a nice and steady growth.

Day 347: Hints of rate hike?

Profit: $0.30 Total: $1,261.94

Yellen finally shows the market that she can also be hawkish. Although she didn’t give an aggressive response, her answer,”Probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate” is fine enough. Yellen is known to kill the dollar with the dovish demeanor but looks like she’s preparing to raise rates in the coming months.

I didn’t trade much since it’s a long weekend along with Yellen due in the afternoon. After Yellen’s speech today, I’m certain the dollar bulls will continue their rally. I think GBP/USD has more room to fall as long as the EUR/USD. Looks like there’s great hope in the dollar.

Day 346: GDP + Yellen

Profit: $13.58 Total: $1,261.64

Oil managed to break the $50 level, however, it stayed below the psychological level during NY’s close. It was a tricky ride for the dollar which may have been because of tomorrow’s Yellen speech and Preliminary GDP numbers. It’s very logical to fear Yellen’s dovish demeanor as she tends to bring the dollar down. As of now, a June rate hike does seem very plausible, let’s see how Yellen feels about it.

I managed to get the only pair that fell against the dollar today, the GBP/USD. Caught a beautiful short from the double top it recently made. I think if tomorrow goes all well and is bullish for the dollar, GBP/USD will have another move down. Very tempted to short it again.

Caught the nice GBP/USD double top short. There’s great potential for a bigger drop.

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Day 345: Back in the sideline

Profit: -$6.56 Total: $1,248.06

I was having trouble uploading a new post yesterday with wordpress so the loss was from yesterday. The losing trade was a GBP/USD short as the pound continues to gain enormous strength. Today however, I decided to go back to the sideline and not trade. The dollar fell hard which made me hesitant about making any trades. I’ll stick on the sideline to see if this is a dollar reversal or a pullback.

Day 344: Lazy Monday

Profit: $0  Total: $1,254.65

The market opened half asleep from a crazy week. It was also a Canadian bank holiday which could have played part in today’s low liquidity. Since the market was dry, I decided to not trade at all. Hopefully the market comes back alive tomorrow.

Day 343: Dollar shows dominance

Profit: $1.29 Total: $1,254.65

Yesterday, we had a sell-off in the dollar after the FOMC minutes meeting statement. I thought the market shrugged off the Fed’s hawkish demeanor and called June’s hike a bluff. However, today we were pleasantly surprised with the ongoing strength of the dollar. Things are looking pretty good for the dollar.

I wasn’t too sure whether or not dollar strength was a fake out but it ultimately finished the session strong. I took a small scalp in GBP/USD which finally collapsed after a good fight. Right now I’m pretty sold on dollar’s rally, I think it has some room to continue. Let’s hope the dollar bulls continues next week and hit new highs.

Day 342: Market calling Fed’s bluff?

Profit: -$7.56 Total: $1,253.36

The market today was very tricky after yesterday’s dramatic event. Regarding the NY session, the dollar took a pause and rebounded from yesterday’s questionably hawkish statement on June’s possible hike. It was very difficult to trade during thin market so I didn’t have many entries. I’m having a close eye on the dollar because it seems like the market may be calling the Fed’s hawkish tone a bluff.

Unfortunately, I was short GBP/USD yesterday, which was the worst currency to short against at the time. The GBP/USD fell the least against the dollar after the FOMC minutes meeting release. The GBP/USD was also the only dollar pair to recover the minor dip and break new highs. I should’ve take profit when I was ahead, but I can’t blame myself because the break looked pretty clean.

Day 341: Hoping pound goes down

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Exciting news released from the FOMC minutes meeting! The Feds have announced that a June rate hike is likely as long as US data remains consistent! A June rate hike probability went from 14% to 26%. The dollar jumped higher while stocks came down. This is great news for the dollar bulls, looks like we will continue going up.

Had a couple losing trades before the market dried up for pre FOMC. I placed a short GBP/USD ahead of the the minutes release due to pound’s unexpected rally. I got a nice short entry and looks like I”ll hold. Here are the before and afters.

Before:

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After:

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Day 340: Fear will make you miss

Profit: $0.42 Total: $1.260.92

The Fed’s have been recently teasing the market with their rate hikes. Instead of providing black and white answers, the Feds has been playing around with their words and delivery. The dollar had a bad start in NY open as it was helplessly falling, but eventually found support when FOMC members Lockhard and Williams stated that June is still a live meeting. I know the market isn’t really anticipating a June hike, but  I guess there still is a chance.

I missed my entry to long USD/CHF due to fear. The NY session opened up with the dollar continuing to go down. I had opened a EUR/USD short trade I closed a bit too early because it looked like there was no support for the dollar. Eventually there was a bounce and the dollar almost finished the session as the strongest currency. I’m letting fear and emotions dictate my trading. I have to stick with my strategy.

This is the long USD/CHF I would’ve made but missed due to fear. As soon as that doji formed on the support line, I should’ve longed it.

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Day 339: Whit Monday

Profit $0.89 Total: $1,260.50

Today’s a European Christian holiday, Whit Monday aka, Pentecost Monday. German, Swiss, and French banks are closed which provided the market with no liquidity. I tried scalping  but decided to end the day short since price was stuck in a very tight range. It’s much better to be out in a dead market than risk potential losses.