Day 411: Quick and nimble

Profit: $5.61 Total: $1,116.44

Trading today required some agility because the dollar had a quick turn around. Right up until the NY session opened the dollar bulls were stable since last Friday. Once NY opened, there was a quick reversal in the market where the dollar pulled back and gave in, GBP/USD being one of the most influenced pair.

I was hesitant on shorting the dollar but when volume started to stir in, I decided to scalp the moves. I noticed the pound gaining strength so my main trades were longing the GBP/USD on an upward channel. Payroll numbers are due in 2 days so rash moments in the markets like today are expected.

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Day 410: Dollar still has it’s mojo

Profit: $6.02 Total: $1,110.83

Dollar gained back it’s mojo from Friday’s spark. I wasn’t too confident yesterday and questioned if the momentum would continue, but dollar remained resilient. USD/JPY was the super star today breaching the 103 level. There’s talks about a BOJ easing which should bring UJ even higher, possibly to 104.

Took it slow and steady and mainly rode the AUD/USD down while longing the USD/JPY. I definitely could’ve milked more on the pairs but decided to take caution. Looks like the dollar momentum is continuing steadily so for now I’m still optimistic.

Day 409: Rebound

Profit: $2.48 Total: $1,104.81

Friday’s excitement was all about Yellen’s optimism on the upcoming U.S. rate hike. Dollar had a great rally and the percentages of a September – December  rate hike went higher. Unfortunately the bullish excitement did not continue but the bears didn’t exactly overpower the bulls either. It was a British holiday so liquidity was low and price action stuck in a range. Right now the market looks like it’s still bullish on the dollar, but let’s see what happens tomorrow.

I took some small scalps in the early morning and had to cut my session short. My main trade was shorting the USD/JPY as it showed weakness. For now I’m keeping a close eye on the dollar to see if the bullish wave will continue.

Day 408: Yellen does not disappoint

Profit: -$1.17 Total: $1,102.33

What a crazy crazy crazy day. Everything was peaceful in the market until Yellen gave her speech at Jackson Hole. In essence, she basically said that a case for a rate hike has strengthened in the recent months. Sounds bullish for the dollar right? Well, judging by the insane price action in the dollar, many people had different interpretations. Dollar had a nice initial spike, followed by a huge dump because a September rate hike was still not mentioned specifically. However, the dollar soon recovered and destroyed any currency that went against it. Looks like Yellen does want to rate hike at least once this year.

I played it safe today because the dip after the initial spike in dollar killed my confidence. After reading Yellen’s speech I was definitely bullish dollar but had a hard to holding onto trades while the dollar was dipping. Could’ve been nice to ride the dollar up but I’m glad I didn’t panic and settle for the loss at the dip.

Day 407: Tricky day

Profit: $2.85 Total:$1,103.50

It’s been a tricky day in the market because there was no real force in direction. Dollar still looks unstable but still doesn’t look like it wants to give up. August is a pretty slow month for the markets so I’m not surprised by the lack of movements. Yellen’s due to speak tomorrow, perhaps she can shed some light on what the Fed’s are thinking.

In slow markets I try to stay very cautious and not make stupid mistakes. Being stuck in a wrong trade in a frozen market feels like a dragging painful death. In slow markets, it’s better to not take risks and end the day at a positive. Let’s see if Yellen can bring life to the markets tomorrow.

Day 406: Waiting for signals

Profit: $2.69 Total: $1,100.65

The dollar continued to rise during London but soon plateaued in the wake of NY. It’s the battle between the bulls vs. bears and it’s too early to tell what is trend. The weakest currency has been the euro while the pound has been holding a fight. I’m still not convinced of the dollar’s relief rally and need more conviction of a long.

I decided to play things safe until price action gave a true trend. Dollar was the superstar yesterday and still may continue it’s strength till this week. If the strength continues, I’ll be looking to short EUR/USD, NZD/USD, and long USD/JPY. I’m avoiding the best of my abilities to not get FOMO (fear of missing out) which will result in a sloppy entry/trade.

Day 405: Tricked out by NU

Profit: -$8.43 Total: $1,097.96

The dollar had a nice bounce today after multiple harassment from the bears. All dollar pairs across the boards fell against the dollar and shows signs of potentially dropping more. Not sure if this is just the test to short the dollar again or if this is the dollar reversal I’v been patiently waiting for…

I got played hard by the NZD/USD today. After the news by the RBNZ yesterday, the NZD had a nice rally in London. The bank stated they aren’t looking for another hike any time soon which drove the their currency higher. I had some heavy shorts on the pair but was closed quickly after a random spike before the huge drop. The loss even discouraged me to hold onto my other long dollar pairs which was my biggest mistake today. The NZD/USD fake out scared me from re-shorting the pair and it scared me from holding onto my other positions. Today should’ve been a killer day..

Boom, hit my SL of 18 pips then went down south.

3y

Day 404: Return from break

Profit: -$12.80 Total: $1,106.39

It was great taking a mini vacation but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t constantly looking at the markets. Even on my break I would catch myself watching CNBC and peeking at the charts. Lasr week wasn’t too hectic for the, however, I can see that the dollar is still unpopular with the investors. Hopefully the Fed’s can instill more confidence in the market or I can see the EUR/USD returning back to the high 1.1400’s.

The market was rather slow and I tried to long the USD/JPY which didn’t work out. Although the Yen is still strong, the 100 level is managing to hold it’s support. If it breaks down to the 99’s I can see the pair falling further which can strike another BoJ cry. Will be closely watching the pair for sure.

Day 403: Week break

Profit: $0 Total: $1,119.19

Decided to take a break today since it was going to be a hectic FOMC day. I’ll be going away for a mini vacation so I’m not entirely sure if I can actively trade. Most likely I’ll be taking the week off, but will be ready to trade again on Monday. Sometimes you just need a day off from the markets to refresh your brains.

Day 402: CPI saves GBP

Profit: -$17.11 Total: $1,119.19

A mix of favorable data saved the GBP from slipping into oblivion. The dollar wasn’t strong and but it looks like it’s trying to hold it’s weight up. FOMC minutes meeting will be tomorrow and hopefully we hear some good news.

I still need to take things slow and steady to get back from this losing streak. Trying to not force trades and focus. August is also a brutal month to trade since the liquidity is so low. Trying to survive the month with minimal damage.