It’s going to be a very busy week including 3 different central bank meetings, jobs report on Friday, and important data in between. The U.S election is also watched carefully because it can create volatility within the markets. As of today, things were pretty slow in NY session. Prices were stuck in ranges but it seems like it’s the calm before the tornado.
I hate slow sessions because it really tests my patience. I also lost some pips due to speculations on CAD. I’m expecting USD/CAD and NZD/CAD to pull back, but keep entering too late due to the fear of missing out. Oil has been significantly dropping so I’ll probably re enter a CAD long once oil bounces.
GDP numbers came out above average, however, consumer sentiment was a tad lower than expected. Not sure if the dollar’s fall was from profit taking, but the dollar bulls ran out of steam on the last day of this week. Next week is action packed with macro news and looks like November will be a volatile month for this year.
Tried shorting the EUR/USD but there was no stopping it. Instead, I longed the USD/JPY on it’s rally, then shorted it as it was falling hard toward the end of the session. It definitely looked like the dollar bulls were giving a good fight, until the bears won. This week was a great scalping week, hopefully steady profits will continue.
Dollar has continued to fight through another day and made new highs. Tomorrow will be an important day for the dollar as it awaits the GDP number. The data may not directly affect the dollar’s course, however, if there are any extreme deviation of a data, it can certainly create volatility. October is almost coming to an end which means we’re closer to the US election and Fed rate hike.
I ditched the Elliot Wave Theory from yesterday because the counts were so subjective. There are also strict rules in the theory which made it impossible to find the perfect count that respected all rules. However, I am now more aware of impulse and corrective moves. Although I’m not counting the legs exactly how the EWT states, I’m incorporating my technical analysis with price action to scalp. I mainly scalped the EUR/USD after failing to catch a NZD/CAD move down.
The dollar is trying it’s best to continue it’s upward momentum and it’s been a good fight to watch. The AUD/USD has been falling hard while the NZD/USD is holding. USD/JPY has been keep up with it’s rally while GBP/USD and EUR/USD has been keeping up with a good fight. There’s some dollar data that’ due tomorrow and Thursday which may being a snap in the dollar.
I’v been scalping the EUR/USD today which behaved pretty sporadic. Price action was jumpy and all over the place, but I started to mess around with Elliot Waves. This was my first time applying EWT (Elliot Wave Theory) to the markets and it worked out okay. I’ve been very skeptical on EWT just because it’s so subjective on it’s wave counts. I wanted to try something new and will study it a bit more. I’m not much of a Fibonacci trader so it was pretty different to incorporate Fibs into my trading.
Not even sure if I did it correctly, but worked out okay for NY’s session. The ABCDE pattern is my prediction in price. Let’s see how the predictions do overnight…
It’s safe to say that it’s unsafe to bet against the dollar anytime soon. Although the EUR/USD and GBP/USD are at a handsome low, it’s still dangerous to call bottom. The percentages of a December rate hike sits around 72%, which is the highest so far. Furthermore, the months proceeding December only increases the rate hike probability. November FOMC is in 8 days while the U.S election is in 2 weeks. I”ll be taking my quick scalps but would not dare to call dollar tops.
Although the pound and euro fell heavily against the dollar overnight, I caught some pips during it’s pull back. NY session consisted of the dollar taking back some of it’s gains which probably confused many traders. I still see much downside to the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. As of now I want to sell every rally.
Today was another great day to long the dollar against the euro. The dollar bull’s finished this week strong which made new lows for EUR/USD. There was a little bounce toward the end of NY session that stopped the dollar from continuing up. I wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar will open with a gap higher on Monday but it can very well start the week with a pullback.
It’s tricky to short a pair that’s already low. We are always taught to buy low, sell high so it’s difficult to sell at the bottom. Whenever I do sell at bottom, for instance like EUR/USD today, I always make sure to take really quick profits. Although my P/L wasn’t the highest due to small scalps, however, it’s always safer to be quick than sell at the bottom.
NY session started off with a banger from Draghi’s speech during the ECB conference. The EUR/USD actually started off strong and made a quick 70+ pips rally above, but got sold off aggressively when Draghi’s speech ended. I’m guessing there was a lot of short covering from people taking profit before Draghi’s speech which gave the Euro a boost above. When Draghi’s speech faced no threats, the market continued to sell off Euro while simultaneously the Dollar was gaining in strength. The result of this was a 4 month low on the EUR/USD.
Watching the EUR/USD whiplash was both fun and scary. I experienced FOMO during the aggressive sell off but didn’t want to jump the gun. My biggest problem today was trying to short the GBP/USD because all other dollar pairs were heading lower against the dollar expect the pound. I thought there was a lag, but the pair kept going above until NY session basically closed. It looks like there’s still fuel left in the dollar and hope that the trend continues.
Today’s massive movers were the AUD and NZD. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD (especially AUD/USD) broke major resistance. Unfortunately, the moment of AUD/USD died off from a bad employment report in Asia session. Dollar is still in limbo as oil is holding the high $51’s but not yet breaking off to $52’s.
Steadily scalped the USD/JPY and tried to long NZD/USD but got in too late. The AUD and NZD rally happened way too quick and I missed the major moves of today. Should’ve put some pending orders on top of structure.
The dollar bulls are still attempting to find back their groove. Although CPI came out just as expected, it wasn’t enough for the dollar to be rapidly bought. One pair that is weak against the dollar is the EUR/USD. It’s been going down at a steady rate since the beginning of October. AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and GBP/USD are all flying, however, USD/JPY seems to be considering a pullback. It’s still too early to tell, but USD/JPY broke out of it’s pendant and looks like it’s heading lower.
I haven’t been trading London since I was sick and wanted to recover with good sleep. NY’s session is just not good enough in terms of trading opportunities. I was able to scalp here and there but basically broke even for the day. I’ll try to get back on my London schedule real soon.