Wow, right when traders assumed the dollar was finally reversing, it went on to retest it’s highs. During London, there was a huge dollar rally which sent the EUR/USD to new weekly lows and sent the USD/JPY to the 114.800’s. Surprisingly GBP/USD was able to withstand against the dollar and bounce back. This dollar rally just goes to show how strong dollar still is.
Liquidity was quick to dry up once New York started to open. I had some messy trades trying to fade the dollar but market ended up going no where. The EUR/USD bounced back against the dollar however, USD/JPY is still up in the air. Another rally we saw this session was in Oil. Due to an OPEC meeting, it shot up about 10% and still is climbing. I took an AUD/CAD trade and will hold it overnight.
Hoping it’ll break below after this consolidation with the help of an oil rally.
The dollar fell a bit from my prediction from yesterday with the EUR/USD gaining about shy of 100 pips against the dollar! Asia session helped the dollar a bit, however, it looks like the trend might have just started. USD/JPY and GBP/USD are putting up a fight, let’s see how it ends.
I was able to scalp the EUR/USD and USD/JPY while the dollar was selling on NY session. I’m hoping this dollar pullback continues and hopefully we can sell some more USD/JPY.
The opening for Sunday after Thanksgiving along with today’s session was surprisingly lively. The dollar opened up very weak but was able to play catch up during London. New York was compromised of the dollar bulls and bears fighting but couldn’t decide on a clear winner. The market looks very interesting right now because the Dollar is still very strong, but looks like it can potentially soon.
I made most of my profits by scalping dollar shorts against USD/JPY and EUR/USD. Although I did not expect a complete reversal in the dollar, I still knew there were opportunities to have short scalps. The dollar has been rising for a bit now but it looks like there can be a potential pullback.
The blue rectangles represents how far the dollar pullback every time it hit this resistance line.
The dollar bulls had one last push before the long weekend bringing EUR/USD and USD/JPY to new highs and lows. The pound was surprisingly showing some strength which was enough for me to long scalp it against the dollar. All in all, I’m cutting my week early and will be ready to trade for Monday after a nice a Thanksgiving meal.
Price action in the market was very unstable and liquidity was very quick to dry up toward the end of the session. However, the Dow broke a record of 19,000 today thanks to the Trump rally. This truly shows that U.S dollar and equity is really sought after and probably the most stable economy right now, despite our minor problems.
I held a short USD/CHF trade overnight which got stopped out. I should’ve known better to bet against the dollar, but the technical analysis was there. I also made a rookie mistake today by chasing after GBP/JPY shorts. Although I would’ve been positive if I held the trade, due to the low liquidity, prices were very jumpy. Holidays are always bad for price action.
Here’s the ugly GBP/JPY short that shot up which soon plummeted down to tease me..
Sunday’s open wasn’t as dramatic as I thought it would’ve been. This week will be a short week due to Thanksgiving so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the markets get duller toward the end of the week. What I’m hoping for is that the dollar bulls will take a breather and hopefully the dollar can have a pullback of some sort.
My EUR/USD long over the weekend got stopped out just before it shot up. My stop lost was tight, but I thought I’d rather be safe than sorry. Today session was also very dramatic in that EUR/USD took a fast initial dip but later recovered toward the end of the session. I’m still waiting for the dollar to pullback.
The almighty dollar bulls continued to finish the week with a strong push. Almost all dollar pairs were dominated by the dollar with the exception of USD/CAD which was driven by the rising oil. Anyone who longed the dollar this week had an amazing trading week.
Although it’s dangerous to bottom pick, I actually went against the trend and longed EUR/USD and will hold over the weekend. Longing EU is the prime example of catching a falling knife, however, it’s hit a strong support, R:R is nice, and seems like a dollar is due for a pullback. Not sure if I’ll win this trade, however, if I caught this potential reversal early, it’ll pay really nice.
Fed chair Yellen testified today before the Join Economic Committee in Washington D.C. Her statement was hawkish stating that economy is making good progress, employment is improving, and that raising rate hikes too late may even cause a problem. December rate hike percentages are up to 96%, which is most likely probable. It’s shown in the raising dollar, but so many events in 2016 happened where the least probable outcome came forth in the end, the U.S election and Brexit to name a few, so who knows.
I let my excitement and emotions get the best of me and longed the USD/JPY and shorted the AUD/USD as soon as I woke up in pre NY. The markets were obviously moving in a funky manner ahead of Yellen’s speech. The dollar pulled back a lot more than I expected and took both of my trades out for a medium size loss. Thankfully I was able to make it back and finish the session just above break even. It would’ve been a great day if I hadn’t jumped the gun too soon.
Just yesterday I was explaining how I was afraid of jumping into mid-trend in the fears of coming in too late. Today was the perfect example of when trend reverses just when I decided to hop in. I’m glad my skepticism allowed me to not fully commit.
Although I joined in at the wrong time to long the dollar, my technical analysis actually helped me recover my losses by reversing EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD. I also had some good USD/CAD short trades, the only trade that was heavily going against me was USD/JPY short. All in all, I’m glad I was able to make it out positive.
People who have underestimated the dollar were in for a surprise. USD/JPY once again continued to make new highs of 109.300’s where other dollar pairs were under control by the dollar bulls. It’s no surprise to see so much buying in the dollar as we approach December since the Fed’s opportunity to hike within this year closes. The election is also over which should help the Feds in raising rates.
My main trades were USD/CAD shorts but it was a trade I wish I just held through. I tried to get in and out of trades, scalping through profits, instead I should’ve set and forget with full trust in the dollar bulls. I’m always apprehensive on jumping on the bandwagon during a nice trend because of arriving too late. My fear is that once I commit to the trend, it’ll start to reverse.