Today was the last official trading day of 2016! To my surprise, the dollar had a great pump on finishing the year despite the trouble it’s been having. Although the dollar had a crazy day, I still controlled my urge of thoughtless trading and played things safe. This year has been one of the most eye opening year for me in terms of trading. It seemed like this year zoomed past and although I did end of negative, I ended up with tons of knowledge. I have no doubt in my mind that 2017 will be a profitable year. I’m ready to face it.
Today was one of those rare days where Asia session had more movement compared to London and New York. Since Asia is a day ahead of us, while it’s still Thursday in the states, Asia just began their Friday which means it’s the last trading day of 2016. The dollar had a huge movement down while the EUR/USD shot up over 100 pips which soon faded slowly after the initial burst. I was able to scalp the movements but I’m also expecting tomorrow to be promising since it’ll be London’s and NY’s last trading days as well.
Man, what a terrible way to end the month due to a greedy mistake. I had a long USD/JPY trade I triggered a bit too early which was my first mistake, but deciding to hold the trade over the holiday weekend was a poor decision. I seldom hold my trades for the weekend, yet alone on a holiday and this weekend was a reminder to why I shouldn’t hold. Since the market was closed on Monday due to international bank holidays, my stop loss didn’t get triggered nor could I manually close my trades. Things got all funky due to liquidity issues and I ended up losing a trade I should’ve never held. I also tried moving my SL but that didn’t work either. Mistake learned. I’ll probably be taking things light until after New Years since liquidity will be light.
I’m actually surprised to say that I”ll be holding a USD/JPY long trade over for the Christmas weekend. I didn’t have much trades today thinking it’ll be wonky due to pre-holiday volatility. I learned from yesterday’s wonky volatility that it’s better not to be too aggressive. Hopefully USD/JPY works out and dollar continues it’s Santa Claus rally post-Christmas. Happy Holidays everyone.
Today was a rough day… There was a sudden spike in volatility where dollar dipped out of no where. I was short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY which I held through but apparently not long enough. Both my generous stop loss was hit before price soon reversed and dollar continued it’s long trend. Hate it when price action like this happens. I guess I was too stubborn and held it for too long or I should’ve even gave a wider stop loss…
Random EUR/USD spike followed by a strong rejection.. Should’ve held.
I’ve been just carefully trading and riding small waves. I know it’s time for the holidays so I’m not expecting liquidity to be grandiose. The dollar still seems to be at a standstill but whether it’s a pullback or continuation on the up side, I’m hoping I don’t miss out on any moves. All my trades were pretty simple today and probably will be quite for the rest of the week.
I didn’t trade yesterday due to personal reasons but the dollar is in a very interesting position right now. The dollar is still very bullish and although EUR/USD is continuing to make lower lows, it seems like there are fewer dollar bulls. Throw in profit taking into the mix, we can have a short pullback in the dollar which will possibly attract more dollar bulls. For now, I’m still bullish on the dollar but aware of a potential dip.
Here’s a nice trade I took in the NZD/USD using clone boxes. Basically a clone box measures the leg of one movement and predicts the 2nd leg using a 1:1 ratio.
You can see the purple wedge break out followed by a 1:1 move down with a nice bounce at the bottom.
The dollar excitement died a bit down today with GBP/USD making new highs however, AUD/USD and NZD/USD continued it’s downward path and made new lows. It looks like the dollar bulls are most likely taking it’s breath rather than the bears taking over. I don’t think the rally is done just yet.
I took a USD/JPY long trade on the dip and actually longed the GBP/USD on it’s way up. NY’s session was a bit more interesting than London’s but overall the crazy volatility died out compared to the beginning of the week. Hopefully the liquidity still hold strong till the end.
Today was another fun day to scalp the dollar. Right before the NY opened, the market provided an opportunity to re long the dollar on a small dip. The trend is so strong not to scalp it and I highly recommend not to call bottom here. I have another pending USD/JPY just in case it explodes again.