Dollar continues to fall hard however the majority of the action happened during London, which I missed. With that said, precious metals are up, pound and euro up, and dollar is continuing down. The rest of the week will be very juicy since we have a FOMC statement tomorrow followed by BOE and ECB meeting on Thursday and an NFP on Friday. Although the dollar sentiment is bearish, things can definitely change by the end of this week.
The equities market started out with a huge downward snap, Yen shot up high, and the Vix was originally up about 6% for the day. London was hectic with the dollar surging high however, everything reversed during NY. It was a very strange reversal and traders suspected the crazy opening from Trump’s immigration ban over the weekend. It’s no surprise that the executive order sent shock waves through the markets.
Price action was crazy during London and during fast moving times like today, I always panic. I end up closing my profitable trade early, I tend to chase prices, and I’m trade very emotionally. I made an enormous amount of mistake today that I’m very disappointed in. I’m not too comfortable with scalping during high volume times like this so maybe it’s even best that I sit out during high-tide.
Although the dollar continued to hold it’s grounds, the bulls wasn’t strong enough to take over yet. Things weren’t as quite volatile as I wanted. NY was actually very quite while price continued to get stuck in a range. I only had 2 trades in which were long USD/JPY and called it a day.
Dow breaking 20k is the biggest news for today. It’s definitely an incredible feat for the stock market and goes to prove the healthy economy of the U.S. One surprising thing today was how equities were lively yet the dollar end lower today compared to all major currencies. There’s definitely fear of Trump’s radical policies for the dollar but I was at least expecting a small bounce for today. GBP/USD continues to make new highs from it’s enormous rally this month reaching over 600 pips.
I made such a beginner’s mistake today by chasing prices on the ever falling pair, USD/CAD. I was sleep deprived and was feeling especially stubborn which made me slip into an old habit. When scalping, it’s crucial that a trader must accept defeat quick and either step away or reverse the losing position they’re in. I haven’t had a big lost in a while but also, I recently increased my trading sizes. Today’s mistake was just a result of a sloppy, messy and idiotic trading. Very disappointed in myself, however, I’m confident I can make it up.
Today’s highlight was dollar fighting back during NY session. Things were pretty quite for London but NY was filled with action with CAD flying hard as long with USD bulls taking over. It wasn’t until NY afternoon till things got spicy but all in all it was a fun day to trade.
It was one of those days where my pip count were positive but commission ate my profits. London and NY-opening was a bit funky which made me uneasy about holding onto positions. Things were fickle and required some patience till NY afternoon until dollar started to move. The results were 25 trades for the session with my commission much higher than my gross P/L. I also increased my position sizes today which made me a bit more nervous holding onto trades. I still happy with my trades today because it wasn’t that they were bad trades, I just lacked the patience.
The pressure in the dollar was when the market opened with the dollar much weaker. A new unpredictable president means unpredictable economy. The USD/JPY revisited the 112’s zone while other dollar major pairs are flying off against the dollar. As for now, there are a lot of pressure in the dollar and looks like it’ll continue selling off.
I missed out on a lot of scalping opportunities like GBP/USD because of the heavy margin requirement my broker requires. The GBP/USD was a great pair to be trading today but I try to avoid it because of the margin. Other than that, it was a slow and steady scalping day.
Donald Trump is now the official President of the United States. This was my first time observing the market as a trader during an inauguration. London was pretty quite and New York definitely had strange movement leading up to the close of the ceremony. Ultimately the dollar ended the session selling off which makes sense because of U.S. uncertainty.
Although the movement in the market today was funky, I was able to successfully scalp some trades throughout the two sessions, London and New York. My main focus now will be to work on my tick scalping. It’s been going pretty good so far and I like it so much better than my time candle analysis. My outlook on the dollar for next week is bearish, seeing how it closed today and the fact that we have a new mercurial president.
There was an ECB meeting today that drove the euro and dollar in multiple directions today. The rates were left unchanged however, they said they are ready to revise QE strategy if needed. There weren’t any further talk about reducing stimulus or tapering which probably forced the EUR/USD to fall and bounce back pretty hard. Draghi’s states that it’s too early to comment on Trump and Brexit for now while the EUR/USD recovers it’s loss from panic selling.
I’ve mentioned about tick charts before in this blog but I want to refocus my attention back to scalping. Although today I mainly focused on USD/JPY, it goes to show that in a slow market, a trader can be able to scalp plenty of pips with the right strategy.
Here’s the 1 min time chart
Here’s the 50 tick chart. You can see already that the tick chart presents more candles within the same moves.
Here’s the result of my chaotic scalping. Although I made a ton of mistakes this just shows the amount of potential tick scalping can have.
The dollar started to gain strength in confidence that Chairwomen Yellen would deliver some good news. There weren’t anything major that Fed Yellen had said except that U.S is near full employment, inflation still under 2%, U.S wages still fairly low, and that the next hike is still unknown. The market opened this week with a weak dollar but it’s been having a steady bounce taking back it’s gains.
I had one trade today that was a small gain, the loss came from the monthly fee from FXCM. For this year of 2017 my goal is to have a steady growth and to be much more patient with my trades than last year. Hopefully by the end of this year, my growth will be stable and my losses minimal.