Finally great to see the Dollar come back to it’s bullish rally. Although it had some troubles in the beginning, it soon set off after finding some support. My single long USD/JPY trade was the winner for the day resulted the most pips. Although the rally isn’t 100% confirmed, I think it will set the trend for the next couple days.
The charts today were pretty uninteresting during London and quite temperamental in NY. I made sure to be very patient since there wasn’t any set ups I truly loved. When the dollar completely reversed during the afternoon, I took some small scalps in longing it but my majority of pips came from the GBP/JPY reshort. All in all, I’m glad I waited for a setup I liked and didn’t get baited by the dollar reversal.
Things were pretty hectic today because in NY session, the dollar bears were disrupted abruptly and things started to bounce. All the dollar pairs ended up lower than the dollar by the end of the session except USD/JPY. So yen is still up, while dollar looks like it can possibly start a new bullish trend next week.
My trade mistake today was on GBP/JPY, a move I’ve been waiting for since the beginning of the week. I noticed the pair was in a wedge brewing to break out anytime this week. Unfortunately, I missed the top to short the pair, which would have been the most ideal entry. Instead, I tried to long it at the bottom to TP at top of the wedge, but it ended up just breaking out to the downside. Not a trade I’m too upset with, just kinda wish I was awake to short the top of the wedge.
I made a terrible, amateur mistake once again… Before I went to bed, I noticed USD/JPY setting up for a nice break out triangle. This “triangle” shape within price action indicates pressure building up, followed by an explosion in either direction; up or down. The mistake I made during London session was getting into this triangle a bit too early. Usually, the smart thing and safe way to trade a break out is by having pending orders on both above and below the triangle to catch the big movement. I made the mistake on entering my position too premature. Price wasn’t even breaking out, in hindsight, I’m not sure what possessed me to enter so early. I ultimately got a loss on my long USD/JPY trade, AND missed out on the ultimate downward explosive move. I was too excited for the move that I got too impatient…
The green arrow shows where I longed the pair, the red arrow where I should’ve had a pending order to short.
The FOMC meeting minutes were released today with great news: U.S. policymakers sees the need for a rate hike “fairly soon”. This news, however, was not effective in the dollar’s performance fell after a momentary lift. Things are looking a bit foggy on dollar’s next move but I’m definitely being cautious on longing.
I got some few long USD/JPY trade before the minutes meeting released. The dollar was surprisingly stronger after the hawkish announcement from the Feds. Movement after the news were very dry an uninteresting. Let’s see if the dollar continues it’s rally or if there’s a correction.
The BIG juicy dollar movement happened during the open on Monday which I didn’t trade since it was President’s Day. The dollar bulls started their moves on Friday and it continued off into the weekend. For the start of NY, I was tricked into trading during a dollar retrace which got me some losses. All in all, I still think the dollar is headed higher due to the anticipated rate hike, and it failed to sustain the EUR/USD break out.
A great trader knows when to be cautious and when to be very aggressive. It’s during key moments that a profitable trader will know when to dial the aggression at opportune times. Since yesterday’s loss on chasing dollar, I figured I short the dollar and go with trend. This was a mistake because just when I had enough wounds from counter-trend trading, the market decides to do what I predicted. Eventually I took the right side of the trade, BUT it was very small and quick due to fear of being wrong. I’m still getting used to Oanda’s new charting system and platform but that’s still not a valid excuse for my losses. I’m definitely stressed out and will take the long weekend the refresh my mind.
Things were very messy today when I tried to chase the dollar longs but kept getting stopped out. It looked like the dollar sell-off was definitely due to Trump’s uncertainty but I took my long dollar positions a bit too early. To add to the burn, I held a short AUD/USD trade over night that didn’t result too well. I need to really focus..
It’s been tricky with the dollar today because it was quick to drop despite great CPI data. Other than Dollar’s unexpected drop, things were pretty quite today. Many people, including me have gotten tricked by the falling dollar because many charts has a set up for a nice dollar long trade. With that said, I’m holding onto a long USD/JPY trade. I still smell a dollar rally cooking up.
I finally got my full refund from my previous broker FXCM. The transition from FXCM to Oanda was a bit rough but everything worked out in the end. I’m still debating whether or not to deposit more money than my original equity from FXCM, I’ll decide that tomorrow.
Today’s price action was a bit interesting because of Yellen’s hawkish statement. One thing I was disappointed to see was how quickly liquidity died out. There was just one big dollar pump previous to Yellen then another small leg after. Other than that the market got super quiet. I excepted the Dollar to give a bit more, but I guess it’s not ready yet.