Did only a couple trades today due to light movements. Dollar is still pretty weak but giving signs of weakness. I didn’t want to force anything and I’m glad I didn’t. When things are slow, take it easy. For tomorrow I’ll see if USD/JPY reversal is still in effect. I wouldn’t be surprised if the week ends in an anticlimactic way since it was so chaotic already.
Just like I called it yesterday, the dollar took a small breather today. The GBP/USD finally pulled back while other dollar pairs had some rest. I wasn’t too crazy about the pullback because the volatility was still pretty weak. Judging by the speed and momentum of the move, I’m not too sold on a reversal just yet. I took some small GBP/USD and GBP/JPY scalps today, but sold it off pretty early. Still very cautious about the pound fades, although longs can still be an option for tomorrow.
The GBP/USD got boosted almost 400 pips in London and New York session by Prime Minister May calling for a snap election in June. This news was completely shocking to the markets and was ultimately favorable for the Pound. May is known for her ability to negotiate well with the European Union so if she wins, it’ll be very beneficial for UK and their Brexit strategy.
I unfortunately missed most of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD rally but had some fun with AUD/USD longs. In the hopes of a lag trade, I longed the AUD/USD on a strong support and pretty much held it throughout NY session, for the final dollar leg down. The dollar can still continue to move on south, but I do suspect a pullback this week. The risk/reward on shorting dollar just doesn’t not look to good to enter at current prices.
I didn’t bother trading on Good Friday due to the really low volume. Unfortunately, the long EUR/USD position I was holding got stopped out and prices consolidated in a range. I had a really good feeling that the dollar pullback on Thursday-Friday was the result of low liquidity and that the dollar will continue further down. I should’ve been more aware of the low volume and played it safe, instead I went a bit more aggressive each time a trade would go against me.
Now that Easter’s over, the market’s liquidity is returning back to normal. If I held my short dollar positions from Thursday, I could’ve had a decent profit, but I didn’t want to take my chances. My outlook on dollar is still short, and hopefully we’ll see some movements again.
Yesterday was a really great day for me as I shorted the dollar. I woke up to a London session that pretty much gave back all the dollar’s Trump induced sell-off and traded NY without much thought. I tried chasing the dollar shorts again but failed to do so with low holiday liquidity.
NY was a bad session for me today because I was being too reckless with my trades. Today was a great example for me to not get too caught up on my winnings and not maintaining focus. The Easter holiday liquidity made the markets difficult to trade and as I loss more and more, I traded more desperately. As of now, I’m still waiting for the dollar to sell off again, which is failing to do so. I lost a bit on shorting USD/CAD and trying to force a long EUR/USD trades. Right now I’m holding a small EUR/USD trade that I hope will end in profit. I still believe the dollar has some falling to do. All in all, a failure of a day.
Trump ended the market in a surprise attack late afternoon when he claimed the dollar was too strong. The dollar is down about 0.5% since Trump’s comment and is still falling during Asia session. I don’t think the market will challenge Trump’s comment as a bluff and instead act accordingly, which is to sell the dollar before Trump takes actions to depreciate. In my opinion, the dollar is going to continue to fall and safe havens will continue to rally.
Today was one of the better days as my short dollar positions profited from Trump’s comment. Some may call it luck but there was definitely more than enough signs in the charts that dollar was looking for a leg down. This whole week I was selling dollar and today was one of the days luck was on my side.
The dollar is teetering with Trump and his Global issues. There’s tensions between North Korea, Russia, China, Syria, and other countries with unpredictable futures. Investors definitely do not like an unpredictable currency, therefore, it’s not surprising to see the USD/JPY fall hard and gold to gradually increase. For the near future, I definitely see safe havens having their moment of appreciation.
My outlook on dollar isn’t necessarily bearish, but it certainty isn’t bullish with the countries mercurial president. Yellen also stated that rate hikes will be gradual and the future is a bit foggy for now. I was able to get some good scalps on USD/JPY shorts today and I still think it has a lot more room to fall. For now, safe havens all the way.
Things are getting crazy in the Syria with U.S’s response to their chemical attack on Thursday. In about just 63 hours after the attack, Trump decided to strike Syria with 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles on their airbase. Although our meeting with China today went pretty well, the future can get scary if Russia, Syria, or China disapproves of U.S’s strike. The markets were pretty stable despite an unexpected attack, in fact, the dollar appreciated quite nicely despite a bad employment number. We had 98K jobs vs 174k estimated, which is pretty low. Not sure if dollar will feel the impact next week or if it’ll shrug it off.
I couldn’t get any trades in because of a wacky price action after employment data. Price was pretty slow after it’s initial chainsaw whip, and then suddenly woke up and snapped around noon. I wasn’t able to catch the big move and was afraid of getting in a new in a late Friday afternoon. This week wasn’t too bad despite yesterday’s mistakes, I’ll be sure to make next week better.
Today was a horrible day from both London to NY session. Trading movement was very sporadic and messy with no real change. It’s pretty common for price to behave in a weird way before a big news day, especially for a day like Pre-NFP. Looking back now, I should’ve been a bit more conservative but I was a bit too impatient on shorting the dollar from yesterday’s FOMC actions. My bias was short dollar which threw off my trading. Biggest tip from today, throw out your biases out the window when trading and focus on price action alone. Also, if price isn’t moving much, don’t force trades!