Day 486: End of month/Q2

Profit: -$2.10 Total:444.94

Today was the end of the month and Q2 which sometimes creates an interesting market. Many times during an end of a seasonal quarter, profit taking, position changing and other sorts of money allocation can take place. Throw in an upcoming holiday, the market had an awesome time stopping the dollar bear from going further. USD/JPY is continuing its move as EUR/USD and GBP/USD looks unstable. I’m not excited for a long holiday, however, I think the dollar bulls will continue next week despite of a low volatility.

Day 485: EU looking weak

Profit: $1.19 –Total: $447.04

I got tempted by the EU and GU on taking the short because it looked so ripe and juicy. Although price movement slowed down for the pairs, it still wasn’t ready to be taken down. Luckily I had some NU scalps and UJ shorts to balance out my heavy losses. Although I feel like EU is ready for a dip, it’s better to short as it falls and no prematurely.

Day 484: Dollar going down town

Profit: $4.17 Total: $455.85

Draghi commented again about his stimulus plans for EU. He said his actions were not to affect the EU as it did but still holds his upbeat view on the economy. Regardless of Draghi clarifying himself, the market took it as a positive for the Euro and continued selling dollar across all boards.

Day 483: More stimulus in EU

Profit: -$3.79 Total: $451.68

The EU went flying today when Draghi annouced that the EU needed more stimulus. The dollar’s crash is continuing and looks dangerous to call bottom. Unfortunately I was trading AUD/USD and NZD/USD which pretty much had no movement compared to the dollar basket pairs. Be careful calling bottoms on dollar.

Day 484: Back from hiatus

Profit: -$38.63 Total: $455.47

Had a really busy 2 weeks with vacation and other errands in life. I’ve been trading here and there during my hiatus but not consistently. I’m back to my normal schedule and will be updating/trading daily again.

Day 481: UK election

Profit: $7.13 Total: $494.10

The dollar bulls has been keeping up a good fight but still far away from a confirmed reversal. It’s too early to long the dollar now but things are definitely at an interesting level. But the big news today was from the UK election which hit the pound pretty hard at the end of NY session. There are several outcomes that can come through from the election which will result in a lot of uncertainty for the future. Longing the pound here is would be a risky move.

I had some profits on scalping the GBP/USD before the whole fiasco but further selling does catch my eye. I’ll be looking at different pound pairs and see if they offer any shorting opportunities. As for the dollar, I’m still unsure about the bounce.

Day 480: Chaotic day

Profit: $7.26 Total: $486.97

Today was an usually chaotic day with prices snapping like rubber bands. The dollar went on a huge spike up then a spike down from late London crossing over to New York session. The dollar bears are still healthy while the bulls are attempting to keep pressure. The balances between the bulls and the bears. are definitely intense

Day 577: Juicy NFP

Profit: -$12.65 Total: $482.56

I had a couple bad GBP/JPY trades in London session before the NFP released. Price action was a bit wonky and things stalled before NFP. A couple minutes before the data announcement I had a holding long GBP/USD trade, which would’ve been a juicy trade, but closed out to avoid slippage. The data ultimately came out to 138k new jobs vs 181k estimate and wrecked the dollar. With this huge selling momentum, the best thing to do is ride the wave and not to call bottoms.