The EUR/USD overnight trade didn’t work out as planned, but pretty much took profit at break even due to low volatility. However, a dollar comeback does look quite possible especially with the USD/JPY recovering today and EUR/USD not making any new highs. I want to see USD/JPY continue making lower lows and higher highs tomorrow and I feel like that’ll set up trades for next week. GBP/USD already crashed, its time for EUR/USD and USD/JPY to catch up. I have another short EUR/USD I took during Asia and I’ll hold it overnight.
The EUR/USD shorts I held overnight didn’t work out. Dollar had a reversal during London and the dollar bears continued to take over for NY. Although the dollar was very weak today, I still have faith in the currency. Other than the EUR/USD, dollar performed fairly well against other pairs.
EUR/USD is at a nice resistance, I’ll have a small short position overnight.
GU and EU shorts went extremely well! I was worried because they were sitting a quite a hefty loss before it reversed into profits. My biggest regret today was taking profit so early on GU and EU, but I feel like this may just be the start of the dollar rally. With every dollar pairs weakening against the dollar, it looks like the market is preparing for a potential reversal. This is VERY exciting news. If things go right, very easy pips can be made.
Today was a pretty mild day except a couple GU short trades I got stuck with at the end of the day. If you look at simplistic line chart of GU, it’s pretty clear where the pair is heading.
I found this imagine on twitter and thought it was a great way to see the market. You can see EU is stuck in a parabolic wedge swing but GU is in a nice pattern of a strong down move > rest > strong down move > rest etc. Therefore, I decided to hold my GU shorts over the weekend. It’s in the reds right now but I’ll hold.
There was a hint of dollar recovery overnight. I had some beautiful scalps of EU and NU longs. The EUR/USD sat on a nice 1 hour bottom wedge and was a great R:R for to long. Right now the dollar seems to be swaying but in an attempt to find a bottom soon. A big chunk of my loss came from a ending GBP/JPY trade I greedily tried to bottom scalp. The pair is in such a heavy downtrend, I should’ve used half my normal positions.
The USD/JPY long trade I had yesterday was correct, I was just too early to exit. I really need to draw out every support lines and then adjust my stop loss accordingly. Today was a bad day for the dollar after the Feds shared their views on a poor outlook for our 2% inflation. The odds of a rate hike dropped to 33.6% from 43.8% and thus killed the dollar. It looks like the dollar recovery is over and the dollar bears may take over.
Tomorrow’s FOMC and for the majority of NY session, Dollar showed weakness. EUR/USD went higher, USD/JPY had a dip, and GBP/USD relatively stayed the same. The levels where USD/JPY and EUR/USD are at now, it looks like tomorrow will be a make it or break it for the dollar pairs. One huge mistake I made today was trying to long USD/JPY while it was going against me. I’m still looking for a recovery bounce and will long USD/JPY overnight.
It was a weird and fairly quiet Monday for both London and NY. The dollar bulls held it’s ground but wasn’t necessarily overpowering. My biggest mistake today was trying to chase trades when prices were going sideways. I also fell for an EUR/USD short trade during late Asia time, which is known for fake outs. My focus is still on EUR/USD and USD/JPY and seeing if dollar is going to survive.
The dollar bulls couldn’t find support from the CPI data as it fell short 0.1% vs 0.2% expected. USD/JPY is off to new lows, EUR/USD looks like it broke out of it’s down trend, and the dollar overall looks very weak. I’m skeptical on longing the dollar here, if anything, I’ll look for shorting opportunities.