Day 518: Inflation’s looking weak

Profit: -$1.27 Total: $339.47

The USD/JPY long trade I had yesterday was correct, I was just too early to exit. I really need to draw out every support lines and then adjust my stop loss accordingly. Today was a bad day for the dollar after the Feds shared their views on a poor outlook for our 2% inflation. The odds of a rate hike dropped to 33.6% from 43.8% and thus killed the dollar. It looks like the dollar recovery is over and the dollar bears may take over.

Day 517: Dollar hinting weakness

Profit: -$11.47 Total: $340.74

Tomorrow’s FOMC and for the majority of NY session, Dollar showed weakness. EUR/USD went higher, USD/JPY had a dip, and GBP/USD relatively stayed the same. The levels where USD/JPY and EUR/USD are at now, it looks like tomorrow will be a make it or break it for the dollar pairs. One huge mistake I made today was trying to long USD/JPY while it was going against me. I’m still looking for a recovery bounce and will long USD/JPY overnight.

Day 516: Quiet day but dollar holds up

Profit: -$16.67 Total: $352.21

It was a weird and fairly quiet Monday for both London and NY. The dollar bulls held it’s ground but wasn’t necessarily overpowering. My biggest mistake today was trying to chase trades when prices were going sideways. I also fell for an EUR/USD short trade during late Asia time, which is known for fake outs. My focus is still on EUR/USD and USD/JPY and seeing if dollar is going to survive.

Day 515: CPI fail

Profit: -$2.15 Total: $368.88

The dollar bulls couldn’t find support from the CPI data as it fell short 0.1% vs 0.2% expected. USD/JPY is off to new lows, EUR/USD looks like it broke out of it’s down trend, and the dollar overall looks very weak. I’m skeptical on longing the dollar here, if anything, I’ll look for shorting opportunities.

Day 514: USD/JPY makes a huge fall

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The dollar had a down day today giving dollar baskets a breather. Tomorrow’s CPI data for the U.S. may rescue the dollar bulls or can end this reversal. USD/JPY broke some major support which may attract more sellers. I lost a few scalps on EUR/USD shorts and the pair is recovering. Next week should be interesting for the dollar, especially the USD/JPY.

Day 513: Dollar’s holding

Profit: $2.47 Total: $371.03

Dollar’s still holding onto it’s gains which is a good sign. It’s been multiple days for the EUR/USD and other dollar pairs to keep it’s down trend. New lows are being created which shows that the dollar may have found a nice support. For now I’m going to take cautious shorts on EUR/USD and GBP/USD in hopes it’ll drop more.

Day 512: JOLTS saves the dollar

Profit: $22.53 Total: $368.56

The JOLTS number rescued the dollar and gave it the pushed it needed. The data came out strong with 6.16M actual vs 5.74M expected. This gave the EUR/USD and GBP/USD the further push down along with boosting USD/JPY temporarily. Although the Yen eventually faded the move back down, EUR/USD and GBP/USD looks like it can keep the price action down.

This was the EUR/USD short move I caught early, right at the break of support with the help of JOLTS.