The USD/JPY long trade I had yesterday was correct, I was just too early to exit. I really need to draw out every support lines and then adjust my stop loss accordingly. Today was a bad day for the dollar after the Feds shared their views on a poor outlook for our 2% inflation. The odds of a rate hike dropped to 33.6% from 43.8% and thus killed the dollar. It looks like the dollar recovery is over and the dollar bears may take over.
Tomorrow’s FOMC and for the majority of NY session, Dollar showed weakness. EUR/USD went higher, USD/JPY had a dip, and GBP/USD relatively stayed the same. The levels where USD/JPY and EUR/USD are at now, it looks like tomorrow will be a make it or break it for the dollar pairs. One huge mistake I made today was trying to long USD/JPY while it was going against me. I’m still looking for a recovery bounce and will long USD/JPY overnight.
It was a weird and fairly quiet Monday for both London and NY. The dollar bulls held it’s ground but wasn’t necessarily overpowering. My biggest mistake today was trying to chase trades when prices were going sideways. I also fell for an EUR/USD short trade during late Asia time, which is known for fake outs. My focus is still on EUR/USD and USD/JPY and seeing if dollar is going to survive.
The dollar bulls couldn’t find support from the CPI data as it fell short 0.1% vs 0.2% expected. USD/JPY is off to new lows, EUR/USD looks like it broke out of it’s down trend, and the dollar overall looks very weak. I’m skeptical on longing the dollar here, if anything, I’ll look for shorting opportunities.
The dollar had a down day today giving dollar baskets a breather. Tomorrow’s CPI data for the U.S. may rescue the dollar bulls or can end this reversal. USD/JPY broke some major support which may attract more sellers. I lost a few scalps on EUR/USD shorts and the pair is recovering. Next week should be interesting for the dollar, especially the USD/JPY.
Dollar’s still holding onto it’s gains which is a good sign. It’s been multiple days for the EUR/USD and other dollar pairs to keep it’s down trend. New lows are being created which shows that the dollar may have found a nice support. For now I’m going to take cautious shorts on EUR/USD and GBP/USD in hopes it’ll drop more.
I was expecting to see some dollar recovery with the opening week but had no luck. Overall, the market was very boring and was stuck in a tight range. Dollar doesn’t look too good and EUR/USD is on it’s way to recovery before the U.S employment news.
The dollar is still carrying it’s weight especially with the USD/JPY creeping it’s way up. The dollar bull’s attempts are still pretty weak but it’s showing some signs of growing strength. There’s some heavy BoE news for early tomorrow that’ll definitely have an affect in GBP/USD. Lets hope the markets keep it juicy.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came out almost as expected of 56.3 vs 56.4. With the help of the news, the dollar bulls gained some what of a breather from the huge downtrend we’ve been having. Many traders are looking to find the top of EUR/USD but the top still seems pretty foggy. We’ll need more days of dollar strength to have a comfortable top.