The dollar bulls has been keeping up a good fight but still far away from a confirmed reversal. It’s too early to long the dollar now but things are definitely at an interesting level. But the big news today was from the UK election which hit the pound pretty hard at the end of NY session. There are several outcomes that can come through from the election which will result in a lot of uncertainty for the future. Longing the pound here is would be a risky move.
I had some profits on scalping the GBP/USD before the whole fiasco but further selling does catch my eye. I’ll be looking at different pound pairs and see if they offer any shorting opportunities. As for the dollar, I’m still unsure about the bounce.
The GBP/USD got boosted almost 400 pips in London and New York session by Prime Minister May calling for a snap election in June. This news was completely shocking to the markets and was ultimately favorable for the Pound. May is known for her ability to negotiate well with the European Union so if she wins, it’ll be very beneficial for UK and their Brexit strategy.
I unfortunately missed most of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD rally but had some fun with AUD/USD longs. In the hopes of a lag trade, I longed the AUD/USD on a strong support and pretty much held it throughout NY session, for the final dollar leg down. The dollar can still continue to move on south, but I do suspect a pullback this week. The risk/reward on shorting dollar just doesn’t not look to good to enter at current prices.
The dollar had a wild day with an initial whipsaw action after the FOMC minutes meeting but soon dropped after. Although the Feds were more hawkish than dovish, the markets sold the dollar off despite the upcoming rate hikes. There was no urgency in the minutes release of a rate hike but still had the words “gradual hike”.
I didn’t trade much today due to the pre FOMC minutes release being really boring and then chaotic after. I could’ve sold the dollar after the markets settled down and punished the currency across the board, but I chose to be passive instead. Seeing the magnitude of the sell off, it looks like the dollar will be down for the next couple days; not looking for a reversal anytime soon.
Just a dull Friday with small EUR/USD scalps. I ended the day early and scalped some short dollar trades. Looks like the dollar rally is fading for now. Pound is in recovery mode and looking to test previous high before it’s dip due to article 50 (Brexit) fears. Next week should be interesting for the dollar.
Dollar is still on it’s grind and continuing to be relentless although pound has had a small rally. Movement was still small and price action was a bit too choppy for me to enter. I had one scalp in a GBP/USD long trade and then couldn’t find another signal to trade off of. This whole week would’ve been a great hold on a long dollar move.
After such a crazy day in the markets yesterday, today was a moment of peace. I did an all-nighter last night for London and NY, so I wasn’t in the best condition. Although I knew the market wasn’t moving much, I still tried to force trades to see if any of them stuck. Looks like the dollar bulls are still in power and heading for another leg up. Don’t fade the dollar now.
Just as my prediction yesterday, the Pound had a HUGEEEEEEE sell off during London and New York. Unfortunately, there was a fake out in London that ruined my confidence on shorting pound with a heavy size. I actually had a huge loss in the beginning of London and pretty much spent the rest of the session along with NY scalping pound shorts. I should’ve been a bit more aggressive with my trades but the fake out scared me away.
See the circle? I had a huge selling position in that channel break, and then got torn apart from that rally. Luckily I made back most of my losses from the rest of the session.
Today was a great sign that the dollar bears are running out of steam. USD/JPY had a strong bounce on the 110 support while the EUR/USD & GBP/USD had a nice fall within NY. The pair I’m interested in this week will be GBP/JPY. Article 50 is due to be triggered in a couple days which will give the pound a hard selling. Can’t wait for a potential break out to the bottom for GBP/JPY and GBP/USD.
Although I made a good amount today by longing dollar, I was still skeptical because of the sell off during London. I’ll still need a couple more days to confirm the dollar rally but I’m truly excited for the potential pound selloff. I’m not married to the idea, but once things start moving, you bet I’ll be selling.
It’s an action packed week starting with a FOMC statement tomorrow with some CPI data, then its a BOJ conference on Thursday with a G20 meeting on Friday. Due to it being a busy week, I assumed the dollar didn’t move too much today. There were pretty good movements, just no major changes in trend. Tomorrow we’ll see if the Feds raise rates. March rate hike is much anticipated, and I can see the dollar selling off enormously if the Feds fail to do so.
The FOMC meeting minutes were released today with great news: U.S. policymakers sees the need for a rate hike “fairly soon”. This news, however, was not effective in the dollar’s performance fell after a momentary lift. Things are looking a bit foggy on dollar’s next move but I’m definitely being cautious on longing.
I got some few long USD/JPY trade before the minutes meeting released. The dollar was surprisingly stronger after the hawkish announcement from the Feds. Movement after the news were very dry an uninteresting. Let’s see if the dollar continues it’s rally or if there’s a correction.