Day 508: USD/JPY resilience

Profit: -$1.46 Total: $363.36

The dollar is still carrying it’s weight especially with the USD/JPY creeping it’s way up. The dollar bull’s attempts are still pretty weak but it’s showing some signs of growing strength. There’s some heavy BoE news for early tomorrow that’ll definitely have an affect in GBP/USD. Lets hope the markets keep it juicy.

Day 497: EUR/USD top?

Profit: $0

EUR/USD is at a very important zone where a deep pullback is more than likely to happen. The ECB doesn’t favor a strong Euro and the Dollar does not reflect U.S.’s improving economy. Even if EUR/USD is destined to break out and rise above, I think a pullback is highly probable.

I caught a short position pretty early, but the speed of the fall rate is pretty slow. I have my stop loss in place and hopefully it falls south from here.

Day 490: NFP helps the dollar

Profit: -$3.46 Total: $447.53

Employment data came out strong with 222k vs 178k expected. The U.S. is in a healthy recovery mode with unemployment decreasing. Only other data that needs to improve would be inflation and an increase in average hourly earnings. The dollar bulls are looking good so far, I’m hoping to see a pullback on EUR/USD. GBP/USD broke and USD/JPY’s going strong, only thing left is for EUR/USD to catch up.

 

Day 487: 4th of July weekend

Profit: $3.57 Total: $448.51

It was a slow Monday due to a long 4th of July holiday in the states. Many people in the business world are in vacation mode. Volatility this week might be slower than others but the dollar bull still looks promising. The ISM manufacturing PMI number came out significant of 57.8 vs 55.0 which drove the dollar higher. With healthy data, the US dollar pullback looks great.

Day 483: More stimulus in EU

Profit: -$3.79 Total: $451.68

The EU went flying today when Draghi annouced that the EU needed more stimulus. The dollar’s crash is continuing and looks dangerous to call bottom. Unfortunately I was trading AUD/USD and NZD/USD which pretty much had no movement compared to the dollar basket pairs. Be careful calling bottoms on dollar.

Day 481: UK election

Profit: $7.13 Total: $494.10

The dollar bulls has been keeping up a good fight but still far away from a confirmed reversal. It’s too early to long the dollar now but things are definitely at an interesting level. But the big news today was from the UK election which hit the pound pretty hard at the end of NY session. There are several outcomes that can come through from the election which will result in a lot of uncertainty for the future. Longing the pound here is would be a risky move.

I had some profits on scalping the GBP/USD before the whole fiasco but further selling does catch my eye. I’ll be looking at different pound pairs and see if they offer any shorting opportunities. As for the dollar, I’m still unsure about the bounce.

Day 562: Snap election

Profit: $3.68 Total: $602.86

The GBP/USD got boosted almost 400 pips in London and New York session by Prime Minister May calling for a snap election in June. This news was completely shocking to the markets and was ultimately favorable for the Pound. May is known for her ability to negotiate well with the European Union so if she wins, it’ll be very beneficial for UK and their Brexit strategy.

I unfortunately missed most of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD rally but had some fun with AUD/USD longs. In the hopes of a lag trade, I longed the AUD/USD on a strong support and pretty much held it throughout NY session, for the final dollar leg down. The dollar can still continue to move on south, but I do suspect a pullback this week. The risk/reward on shorting dollar just doesn’t not look to good to enter at current prices.

Day 554: Dollar reversal

Profit: -$2.10 Total: $628.58

The dollar had a wild day with an initial whipsaw action after the FOMC minutes meeting but soon dropped after. Although the Feds were more hawkish than dovish, the markets sold the dollar off despite the upcoming rate hikes. There was no urgency in the minutes release of a rate hike but still had the words “gradual hike”.

I didn’t trade much today due to the pre FOMC minutes release being really boring and then chaotic after. I could’ve sold the dollar after the markets settled down and punished the currency across the board, but I chose to be passive instead. Seeing the magnitude of the sell off, it looks like the dollar will be down for the next couple days; not looking for a reversal anytime soon.