Tomorrow’s FOMC and for the majority of NY session, Dollar showed weakness. EUR/USD went higher, USD/JPY had a dip, and GBP/USD relatively stayed the same. The levels where USD/JPY and EUR/USD are at now, it looks like tomorrow will be a make it or break it for the dollar pairs. One huge mistake I made today was trying to long USD/JPY while it was going against me. I’m still looking for a recovery bounce and will long USD/JPY overnight.
Dollar’s still holding onto it’s gains which is a good sign. It’s been multiple days for the EUR/USD and other dollar pairs to keep it’s down trend. New lows are being created which shows that the dollar may have found a nice support. For now I’m going to take cautious shorts on EUR/USD and GBP/USD in hopes it’ll drop more.
It was such a messy unemployment day. I was sleep deprived for London and knew I didn’t want to trade during data release so I slept in until the chaos settled. After oversleeping, I woke up to a crazy market and missed the entire drop on the EUR/USD. I tried my best to long scalp the dollar but price didn’t really go up for EUR/USD. GBP/USD had a better short opportunity but I was too focused on EUR/USD. Unlucky day. I except the dollar to bounce a bit more but so far EUR/USD is recovering it’s drop.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came out almost as expected of 56.3 vs 56.4. With the help of the news, the dollar bulls gained some what of a breather from the huge downtrend we’ve been having. Many traders are looking to find the top of EUR/USD but the top still seems pretty foggy. We’ll need more days of dollar strength to have a comfortable top.
Dollar had a sharp sell-off today after the FOMC statement with EUR/USD hitting a new 2 year high. The Feds left the rates unchanged, said inflation was still lower than 2% and said the next hike will be “relatively soon”. The key word, relatively, providing mystery and not much detailed promises. The strength of the dollar bears have been incredible for the last couple months and looks like it’s still going. For my trading, I personally kept it minimal since the market was slow and for a possibility that it can get chaotic post-statement. Now that dollar picked it’s trend, I’ll see if I can short scalp the dollar on it’s way down.
Today was one of the most boring trading days we’ve had in a while. The dollar is at a detrimental low but a lot of traders are looking for a bounce recovery. The EUR/USD looked like it was about to dip today and tricked me into shorting it prematurely. Going to have to wait for prices to settle and to pick a direction to move.
EUR/USD is at a very important zone where a deep pullback is more than likely to happen. The ECB doesn’t favor a strong Euro and the Dollar does not reflect U.S.’s improving economy. Even if EUR/USD is destined to break out and rise above, I think a pullback is highly probable.
I caught a short position pretty early, but the speed of the fall rate is pretty slow. I have my stop loss in place and hopefully it falls south from here.
Things still doesn’t look good for the dollar bulls. There has been some good scalping opportunities for some dollar longs but eventually, the dollar ended the day lower than week’s open. Right now the strong trend is still weak dollar. I personally can’t wait for a EUR/USD reversal to start but until then, it’s just quick scalping times.
Yellen testified today and failed to make any hawkish comments toward the U.S. economy. She states that the economy is slowly improving with additional, but gradual rate hikes in the futures, but that’s still old news. She claims that rates do not have to rise much to further to get to neutral and still worries about inflation. With that said, EUR/USD did get rejected from yesterday and fell around 90 pips, but it’s slowly recovering from the dip. I’m not satisfied on selling the EUR/USD at the moment, but once things start turning around, I’ll be there to short.