Today was the FOMC minutes meeting and it seemed like half the Feds were pro December hike, and half was still unsure. As for now, IF data looks decent until December, it looks like the December rate hike is a go. The important information the market needs now is whats going to happen after December. Are we going to have more hikes or is it a one and done type of deal. The dollar didn’t rise from the minutes meeting but I’m still holding onto my long USD/JPY trade.
Still holding onto my long dollar positions over the weekend. I added some more EU short, UJ longs and UCAD longs. NY session wasn’t the best for the dollar bulls but it finally looks like it’s heading up during Asia.
The NFP data showed that the U.S lost 33,000 jobs this month but many are speculating that it’s due to seasonal job changes along with the major hurricane interruptions. The dollar initially took this news well and even had a small jump off of it. Eventually when things settled out, the dollar spent the remaining of NY to pull back. This pull back is not only healthy but natural. The dollar has been rallying for weeks and it’s about time it took a pause. I had some early dollar long trades mid NY session which I will hold. I believe the dollar pullback will attract more buyers at better price and go for another leg up.
It was another win today by the Dollar bulls. The rally is still alive even before the NFP. One topic of tomorrow’s number is that if the recent devastating hurricanes will have a major effect on the payroll data or not. There were multiple hurricanes in the end of September which created chaos within the labor market. It would be interesting to see how big of an impact the hurricanes had. I still think it looks bright for the dollar bulls as long as the NFP data comes out horrible.
There were some majors news events scheduled for the afternoon for Draghi and Yellen to speak. A lot of traders were expecting some crazy movements but ultimately the two spokesmen said nothing to change any price action. I was afraid the dollar bulls were going to lose their battle but the bulls still look very juicy. I want to take some dollar long trades overnight but the momentum is still not there. I feel like the markets are gearing up for another dollar push, I may or may not decide to enter in some dollar long trades overnight regardless of the low momentum.
I opened up the charts a bit NY opening and looked pretty clear to me that the dollar was still bullish. Throughout the day I took trades to scalp long dollar but things were just not moving in the right direction. Not sure if it was because it’s the beginning of the month but things were really slow for today. I had some rough scalping losses which made me hold onto some of my long dollar trades. I ended up taking profits during Asia where I was able to recoup most of my losses. Remember, if the market’s not moving, sometimes it’s better to just hold.
A lot of mixed messages within the dollar pairs today. It looked like the dollar was starting off strong at start ,then had a dip which eventually plateaued in the end. It’s pretty usual for Friday’s to be wonky, especially for the last trading day of the month. My usually strategy for days like these are to get my pips and run.
There was a whiplash action by the dollar after Yellen spoke about the U.S economy. She was worried about inflation, as usual, but also said the low inflation is only temporary. Yellen also reiterated about “gradual adjustments” but also said that the outlook looks uncertain. The dollar had a whiplash movement but ultimately ended on a good note. Dollar bulls still looks pretty good from here.
Things were interesting and confusing in the dollar because there wasn’t a sure winner against the bulls and the bears. The markets opened strong with a nice push by the dollar bulls but there wasn’t any momentum left for NY. Slow Mondays are not uncommon so it was hard to tell what direction the market was heading. Im holding onto a long USD/MXN due the pair breaking so many important resistances.