The dollar bulls has been keeping up a good fight but still far away from a confirmed reversal. It’s too early to long the dollar now but things are definitely at an interesting level. But the big news today was from the UK election which hit the pound pretty hard at the end of NY session. There are several outcomes that can come through from the election which will result in a lot of uncertainty for the future. Longing the pound here is would be a risky move.
I had some profits on scalping the GBP/USD before the whole fiasco but further selling does catch my eye. I’ll be looking at different pound pairs and see if they offer any shorting opportunities. As for the dollar, I’m still unsure about the bounce.
I had a couple bad GBP/JPY trades in London session before the NFP released. Price action was a bit wonky and things stalled before NFP. A couple minutes before the data announcement I had a holding long GBP/USD trade, which would’ve been a juicy trade, but closed out to avoid slippage. The data ultimately came out to 138k new jobs vs 181k estimate and wrecked the dollar. With this huge selling momentum, the best thing to do is ride the wave and not to call bottoms.
The market has been volatile in the anticipation of the employment data tomorrow. Things have been very tricky to trade while I was at fault trying to force trades. Dollar seems to be in limbo with it reacting it differently among the variety pairs. Tomorrow will be interesting for the dollar.
The dollar finished lower after the FOMC minutes due to some passive tones. A June hike is still on the table but looks like the Feds are taking it cautiously. Data will be the main deciding factor and until June, it looks like there’s a slightly uncertain potential for a rate hike. Given today’s reaction in the dollar, I would personally be wary of longing dollar here.
The pullback finally happened after an extensive push by the dollar bears. This can be a momentary breather from the bears before the next leg down or it can be a start to the reversal fade. Will be keeping an eye out for possible big moves.
Last week was when dollar was heavily sold with EUR/USD continuously making previous day highs. I feel like this week is a new week where the dollar bears will take a breather and test previous supports it broke. The dollar can continue to fall but it’s very unlikely that it’ll have the same strength as last week without testing some previous levels before. I’ll be on the look out for potential reversal set ups.
I took a 2 week break from blogging and trading after a big loss 2 weeks ago. During my break I was still trading but decided not to post because the markets were so slow and boring. During the FOMC statements and French elections, markets were too boring to constantly trade, in fact, I lost money by forcing trades. I’m back now and ready more than ever. Hopefully the markets can wake up and some good trade formations can form.
Just like I called it yesterday, the dollar took a small breather today. The GBP/USD finally pulled back while other dollar pairs had some rest. I wasn’t too crazy about the pullback because the volatility was still pretty weak. Judging by the speed and momentum of the move, I’m not too sold on a reversal just yet. I took some small GBP/USD and GBP/JPY scalps today, but sold it off pretty early. Still very cautious about the pound fades, although longs can still be an option for tomorrow.
Yesterday was a really great day for me as I shorted the dollar. I woke up to a London session that pretty much gave back all the dollar’s Trump induced sell-off and traded NY without much thought. I tried chasing the dollar shorts again but failed to do so with low holiday liquidity.
NY was a bad session for me today because I was being too reckless with my trades. Today was a great example for me to not get too caught up on my winnings and not maintaining focus. The Easter holiday liquidity made the markets difficult to trade and as I loss more and more, I traded more desperately. As of now, I’m still waiting for the dollar to sell off again, which is failing to do so. I lost a bit on shorting USD/CAD and trying to force a long EUR/USD trades. Right now I’m holding a small EUR/USD trade that I hope will end in profit. I still believe the dollar has some falling to do. All in all, a failure of a day.
Trump ended the market in a surprise attack late afternoon when he claimed the dollar was too strong. The dollar is down about 0.5% since Trump’s comment and is still falling during Asia session. I don’t think the market will challenge Trump’s comment as a bluff and instead act accordingly, which is to sell the dollar before Trump takes actions to depreciate. In my opinion, the dollar is going to continue to fall and safe havens will continue to rally.
Today was one of the better days as my short dollar positions profited from Trump’s comment. Some may call it luck but there was definitely more than enough signs in the charts that dollar was looking for a leg down. This whole week I was selling dollar and today was one of the days luck was on my side.