Today was the FOMC minutes meeting and it seemed like half the Feds were pro December hike, and half was still unsure. As for now, IF data looks decent until December, it looks like the December rate hike is a go. The important information the market needs now is whats going to happen after December. Are we going to have more hikes or is it a one and done type of deal. The dollar didn’t rise from the minutes meeting but I’m still holding onto my long USD/JPY trade.
The NFP data showed that the U.S lost 33,000 jobs this month but many are speculating that it’s due to seasonal job changes along with the major hurricane interruptions. The dollar initially took this news well and even had a small jump off of it. Eventually when things settled out, the dollar spent the remaining of NY to pull back. This pull back is not only healthy but natural. The dollar has been rallying for weeks and it’s about time it took a pause. I had some early dollar long trades mid NY session which I will hold. I believe the dollar pullback will attract more buyers at better price and go for another leg up.
It was another win today by the Dollar bulls. The rally is still alive even before the NFP. One topic of tomorrow’s number is that if the recent devastating hurricanes will have a major effect on the payroll data or not. There were multiple hurricanes in the end of September which created chaos within the labor market. It would be interesting to see how big of an impact the hurricanes had. I still think it looks bright for the dollar bulls as long as the NFP data comes out horrible.
I opened up the charts a bit NY opening and looked pretty clear to me that the dollar was still bullish. Throughout the day I took trades to scalp long dollar but things were just not moving in the right direction. Not sure if it was because it’s the beginning of the month but things were really slow for today. I had some rough scalping losses which made me hold onto some of my long dollar trades. I ended up taking profits during Asia where I was able to recoup most of my losses. Remember, if the market’s not moving, sometimes it’s better to just hold.
Today was a funny day because the dollar started off really strong, and even had a rally after core durable goods orders came out as expected. I was able to long dollar against yen and the peso but had to take profits off quick because dollar pullback back and stagnated until late afternoon. I took some small scalps here and there but closed them out because market wasn’t moving much. I have a small USD/JPY and USD/MXN long that I’ll hold overnight because they still showed signs of bullishness post NY session. Dollar still looks very bull.
Things were interesting and confusing in the dollar because there wasn’t a sure winner against the bulls and the bears. The markets opened strong with a nice push by the dollar bulls but there wasn’t any momentum left for NY. Slow Mondays are not uncommon so it was hard to tell what direction the market was heading. Im holding onto a long USD/MXN due the pair breaking so many important resistances.
The dollar’s hanging in there but there wasn’t enough momentum to create any significant moves. I had a small loss today but could’ve easily ended positive if I held onto my last EUR/USD shorts and USD/CAD longs in the afternoon. I hate holding onto trades on Friday afternoons because they literally take ages to actually move. Liquidity is so painfully long. All in all, I’m getting my rhythm back in the markets and this was an all around positive week.
Had some attempts to long dollar to see if the momentum from yesterday will keep going. Unfortunately, yesterday’s post FOMC dollar buying came to a halt as dollar pairs hit their supports and resistances. Right now dollar’s pulling back but it’s too early to tell if it’s a reversal or pullback.
Here’s one example of dollar pairs reaching resistance. It’ll need heavy momentum for a nice break followed by a rally.
Today was an absolute boring NY opening and I was stupid enough to force trades. I know I shouldn’t have been trading when things aren’t moving, but I had an itch for trades. Due to my boredom pre-FOMC trading, it costed me some pips, but luckily I was able to gain some of my losses back after the FOMC chaos. The dollar looks nice and healthy, looks like there will be potential long dollar trades tomorrow.