The NFP data showed that the U.S lost 33,000 jobs this month but many are speculating that it’s due to seasonal job changes along with the major hurricane interruptions. The dollar initially took this news well and even had a small jump off of it. Eventually when things settled out, the dollar spent the remaining of NY to pull back. This pull back is not only healthy but natural. The dollar has been rallying for weeks and it’s about time it took a pause. I had some early dollar long trades mid NY session which I will hold. I believe the dollar pullback will attract more buyers at better price and go for another leg up.
I took a 2 week break from blogging and trading after a big loss 2 weeks ago. During my break I was still trading but decided not to post because the markets were so slow and boring. During the FOMC statements and French elections, markets were too boring to constantly trade, in fact, I lost money by forcing trades. I’m back now and ready more than ever. Hopefully the markets can wake up and some good trade formations can form.
Employment number came out much better than expected of 227k vs 170k but it took a while for the markets to react accordingly. The data initially drove the dollar a bit up but was quick to sell it back off. Eventually the dollar ended the day with the dollar much lower. It was very interesting to see the reaction of the dollar bears so strong even after a spectacular jobs number.
I had some troubles with the tricky dollar and chased the wrong side (long). At the end of the day when dollar was selling off, I switched sides and shorted it at the retracement. Today was a tricky day and I definitely should’ve been more patient and not have a data bias.
The equities market started out with a huge downward snap, Yen shot up high, and the Vix was originally up about 6% for the day. London was hectic with the dollar surging high however, everything reversed during NY. It was a very strange reversal and traders suspected the crazy opening from Trump’s immigration ban over the weekend. It’s no surprise that the executive order sent shock waves through the markets.
Price action was crazy during London and during fast moving times like today, I always panic. I end up closing my profitable trade early, I tend to chase prices, and I’m trade very emotionally. I made an enormous amount of mistake today that I’m very disappointed in. I’m not too comfortable with scalping during high volume times like this so maybe it’s even best that I sit out during high-tide.
NFP came out lower than expected of 156k vs 175k.The low jobs report however did not stop the dollar bears from taking control. Overall, the dollar had a great day and showed some recovery. Traders definitely thought the dollar reversal was around the corner since the past few days were consistently bear dollar, but today showed that even with a bad jobs report, the dollar’s strength is not to be reckoned with.
This week has been a very sloppy week for me. My mistakes were the norm: pulling out of profits early, not entering certain trades, and entering too early. My losses would’ve been much higher than it is if I didn’t take back control and gave up. I need to get out of my holiday mode and start grinding.
The past couple of days toward the end of last week was a bit annoying. The dollar looked like it was about to pullback which gave me the idea to heavily short the USD/JPY for it’s due correction. On Wednesday’s NY session, I had one of the best trading days in a while going off on the dollar pullback trade. My greed carried over to the Asia session where I placed heavy pending trades on short dollar which eventually busted my gains and then some more. Draghi was due to speak on Thursday morning and he basically extended his QE program, devaluing the Euro which gave life back to the dollar. I should’ve been more smart than to place heavy trades before an important speech. I spent the rest of the week catching up on my losses but pretty much remained unsuccessful. At this point I’m not too sure what the dollar will do from here on out but I’m worried that liquidity will dry up for the holidays.
Today was a very exciting day when the euro unexpectedly took off with the EUR/USD flying a shy of 200 pips for London and NY. Although the dollar was falling a bit, the majority of the move was the power in the euro. The pound stayed relatively the same while USD/JPY took momentarily dip and the Aussie and New Zealand dollar both had a mini rally as well. But certainly, today’s spotlight was on euro.
Unfortunately, I was not quick enough to catch the flying EUR/USD. I wasn’t sure what was driving the euro so strong and it just felt too wrong to short the dollar especially after it’s monstrous rally. I lost some pips shorting the USD/JPY a bit too early, however, I did short it again which I will hold overnight. I think it’ll take a couple more sessions to see if the change in the euro is an actual reversal, however, it did have it’s best day since June.
Price action in the market was very unstable and liquidity was very quick to dry up toward the end of the session. However, the Dow broke a record of 19,000 today thanks to the Trump rally. This truly shows that U.S dollar and equity is really sought after and probably the most stable economy right now, despite our minor problems.
I held a short USD/CHF trade overnight which got stopped out. I should’ve known better to bet against the dollar, but the technical analysis was there. I also made a rookie mistake today by chasing after GBP/JPY shorts. Although I would’ve been positive if I held the trade, due to the low liquidity, prices were very jumpy. Holidays are always bad for price action.
Here’s the ugly GBP/JPY short that shot up which soon plummeted down to tease me..
Fed chair Yellen testified today before the Join Economic Committee in Washington D.C. Her statement was hawkish stating that economy is making good progress, employment is improving, and that raising rate hikes too late may even cause a problem. December rate hike percentages are up to 96%, which is most likely probable. It’s shown in the raising dollar, but so many events in 2016 happened where the least probable outcome came forth in the end, the U.S election and Brexit to name a few, so who knows.
I let my excitement and emotions get the best of me and longed the USD/JPY and shorted the AUD/USD as soon as I woke up in pre NY. The markets were obviously moving in a funky manner ahead of Yellen’s speech. The dollar pulled back a lot more than I expected and took both of my trades out for a medium size loss. Thankfully I was able to make it back and finish the session just above break even. It would’ve been a great day if I hadn’t jumped the gun too soon.
It’s been difficult to push the dollar lower all except one pair, GBP/USD. The pound’s rally seems to be a continuation of the delayed Brexit. Certain sectors such as banks and finances are rallying after the election while tech stocks are taking a hit. It’s still too early to predict how this election will affect the markets in the long run.
I’ve been scalping USD/JPY shorts in the hopes to catch an early reversal but it does not seem to plummet down. I’m experimenting with a new charting platform and also with tick charts compared to time interval candle sticks. The difference between tick and time is simply that tick shows the change in movement in price while time candle stick shows the change in price within a certain amount of time. A tick chart seems to paint a clearer picture in a short time frame analysis, which is more beneficial in scalping.