The dollar bulls has been keeping up a good fight but still far away from a confirmed reversal. It’s too early to long the dollar now but things are definitely at an interesting level. But the big news today was from the UK election which hit the pound pretty hard at the end of NY session. There are several outcomes that can come through from the election which will result in a lot of uncertainty for the future. Longing the pound here is would be a risky move.
I had some profits on scalping the GBP/USD before the whole fiasco but further selling does catch my eye. I’ll be looking at different pound pairs and see if they offer any shorting opportunities. As for the dollar, I’m still unsure about the bounce.
Today was an usually chaotic day with prices snapping like rubber bands. The dollar went on a huge spike up then a spike down from late London crossing over to New York session. The dollar bears are still healthy while the bulls are attempting to keep pressure. The balances between the bulls and the bears. are definitely intense
I was hoping the dollar sell-off would continue but it was a rather quiet day. Threw in some EUR/USD and GBP/USD long trades and fooled around with USD/JPY shorts. All in all, was a boring and quiet day. Will wait for another snap in the market.
I had a couple bad GBP/JPY trades in London session before the NFP released. Price action was a bit wonky and things stalled before NFP. A couple minutes before the data announcement I had a holding long GBP/USD trade, which would’ve been a juicy trade, but closed out to avoid slippage. The data ultimately came out to 138k new jobs vs 181k estimate and wrecked the dollar. With this huge selling momentum, the best thing to do is ride the wave and not to call bottoms.
It’s a short trading week due to the long Memorial day weekend, but it’ll be a volatile week with an employment data for May on Friday. The dollar looks like it’s holding it’s weight and attempting to hold it’s strength. There’s a high probability for an upcoming rate hike so it’ll be interesting to see how the dollar reacts in the anticipation.
Just like I called it yesterday, the dollar took a small breather today. The GBP/USD finally pulled back while other dollar pairs had some rest. I wasn’t too crazy about the pullback because the volatility was still pretty weak. Judging by the speed and momentum of the move, I’m not too sold on a reversal just yet. I took some small GBP/USD and GBP/JPY scalps today, but sold it off pretty early. Still very cautious about the pound fades, although longs can still be an option for tomorrow.
The GBP/USD got boosted almost 400 pips in London and New York session by Prime Minister May calling for a snap election in June. This news was completely shocking to the markets and was ultimately favorable for the Pound. May is known for her ability to negotiate well with the European Union so if she wins, it’ll be very beneficial for UK and their Brexit strategy.
I unfortunately missed most of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD rally but had some fun with AUD/USD longs. In the hopes of a lag trade, I longed the AUD/USD on a strong support and pretty much held it throughout NY session, for the final dollar leg down. The dollar can still continue to move on south, but I do suspect a pullback this week. The risk/reward on shorting dollar just doesn’t not look to good to enter at current prices.
Today was a horrible day from both London to NY session. Trading movement was very sporadic and messy with no real change. It’s pretty common for price to behave in a weird way before a big news day, especially for a day like Pre-NFP. Looking back now, I should’ve been a bit more conservative but I was a bit too impatient on shorting the dollar from yesterday’s FOMC actions. My bias was short dollar which threw off my trading. Biggest tip from today, throw out your biases out the window when trading and focus on price action alone. Also, if price isn’t moving much, don’t force trades!
The dollar had a wild day with an initial whipsaw action after the FOMC minutes meeting but soon dropped after. Although the Feds were more hawkish than dovish, the markets sold the dollar off despite the upcoming rate hikes. There was no urgency in the minutes release of a rate hike but still had the words “gradual hike”.
I didn’t trade much today due to the pre FOMC minutes release being really boring and then chaotic after. I could’ve sold the dollar after the markets settled down and punished the currency across the board, but I chose to be passive instead. Seeing the magnitude of the sell off, it looks like the dollar will be down for the next couple days; not looking for a reversal anytime soon.
Dollar seems to be still stuck in limbo today with different dollar baskets doing different things. At this point, I’m waiting for a break out of some sort in dollar to see if it’s got any heat left in it’s rally or if the bears will take it from here. I don’t really like the price action for this week but slow days are inevitable.