I was hoping the dollar sell-off would continue but it was a rather quiet day. Threw in some EUR/USD and GBP/USD long trades and fooled around with USD/JPY shorts. All in all, was a boring and quiet day. Will wait for another snap in the market.
Trump ended the market in a surprise attack late afternoon when he claimed the dollar was too strong. The dollar is down about 0.5% since Trump’s comment and is still falling during Asia session. I don’t think the market will challenge Trump’s comment as a bluff and instead act accordingly, which is to sell the dollar before Trump takes actions to depreciate. In my opinion, the dollar is going to continue to fall and safe havens will continue to rally.
Today was one of the better days as my short dollar positions profited from Trump’s comment. Some may call it luck but there was definitely more than enough signs in the charts that dollar was looking for a leg down. This whole week I was selling dollar and today was one of the days luck was on my side.
The dollar is teetering with Trump and his Global issues. There’s tensions between North Korea, Russia, China, Syria, and other countries with unpredictable futures. Investors definitely do not like an unpredictable currency, therefore, it’s not surprising to see the USD/JPY fall hard and gold to gradually increase. For the near future, I definitely see safe havens having their moment of appreciation.
My outlook on dollar isn’t necessarily bearish, but it certainty isn’t bullish with the countries mercurial president. Yellen also stated that rate hikes will be gradual and the future is a bit foggy for now. I was able to get some good scalps on USD/JPY shorts today and I still think it has a lot more room to fall. For now, safe havens all the way.
Dollar is still on it’s grind and continuing to be relentless although pound has had a small rally. Movement was still small and price action was a bit too choppy for me to enter. I had one scalp in a GBP/USD long trade and then couldn’t find another signal to trade off of. This whole week would’ve been a great hold on a long dollar move.
Today was a great sign that the dollar bears are running out of steam. USD/JPY had a strong bounce on the 110 support while the EUR/USD & GBP/USD had a nice fall within NY. The pair I’m interested in this week will be GBP/JPY. Article 50 is due to be triggered in a couple days which will give the pound a hard selling. Can’t wait for a potential break out to the bottom for GBP/JPY and GBP/USD.
Although I made a good amount today by longing dollar, I was still skeptical because of the sell off during London. I’ll still need a couple more days to confirm the dollar rally but I’m truly excited for the potential pound selloff. I’m not married to the idea, but once things start moving, you bet I’ll be selling.
I had a great scaled set up with EUR/USD shorts but due to the larger than usual size that I normally trade, I got scared and backed off. Revenge trading is tough because the pressure to make back losses is much higher. I’m trying to trade larger than regular sizes to compensate for the losses, however, it gets more frightening to hold onto trades because I don’t want to make my losses bigger than it is. Revenge trading is not necessarily bad as long as you keep yourself grounded.
The circle is the area that I pulled my shorts since I was building up throughout that wedge. It was only after the big drop that I saw the resistance. Today was just a bad trading day.
The dollar continued to rally hard today especially bringing AUD/USD down with it. The current dollar rally that started this week only makes sense because of the high probability of a March rate hike, if not a hike after March. There was definitely a delay affect in the rally but it looks like everything’s going well to plan. At the moment, I don’t really see a reason to short dollar, however, some pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY are at interesting supports.
Today was one of those days where I had the direction right but the execution was poor. My great trades were smaller sizes and my bad trades were bigger sizes. Not sure if I was just worried about a dollar pullback, but I wasn’t as nearly as aggressive with the dollar rally as I wish I would’ve. I need to learn to just go super aggressive on trades I’m confident in.
Finally great to see the Dollar come back to it’s bullish rally. Although it had some troubles in the beginning, it soon set off after finding some support. My single long USD/JPY trade was the winner for the day resulted the most pips. Although the rally isn’t 100% confirmed, I think it will set the trend for the next couple days.
Things were pretty hectic today because in NY session, the dollar bears were disrupted abruptly and things started to bounce. All the dollar pairs ended up lower than the dollar by the end of the session except USD/JPY. So yen is still up, while dollar looks like it can possibly start a new bullish trend next week.
My trade mistake today was on GBP/JPY, a move I’ve been waiting for since the beginning of the week. I noticed the pair was in a wedge brewing to break out anytime this week. Unfortunately, I missed the top to short the pair, which would have been the most ideal entry. Instead, I tried to long it at the bottom to TP at top of the wedge, but it ended up just breaking out to the downside. Not a trade I’m too upset with, just kinda wish I was awake to short the top of the wedge.
The BIG juicy dollar movement happened during the open on Monday which I didn’t trade since it was President’s Day. The dollar bulls started their moves on Friday and it continued off into the weekend. For the start of NY, I was tricked into trading during a dollar retrace which got me some losses. All in all, I still think the dollar is headed higher due to the anticipated rate hike, and it failed to sustain the EUR/USD break out.