The USD/JPY long trade I had yesterday was correct, I was just too early to exit. I really need to draw out every support lines and then adjust my stop loss accordingly. Today was a bad day for the dollar after the Feds shared their views on a poor outlook for our 2% inflation. The odds of a rate hike dropped to 33.6% from 43.8% and thus killed the dollar. It looks like the dollar recovery is over and the dollar bears may take over.
Tomorrow’s FOMC and for the majority of NY session, Dollar showed weakness. EUR/USD went higher, USD/JPY had a dip, and GBP/USD relatively stayed the same. The levels where USD/JPY and EUR/USD are at now, it looks like tomorrow will be a make it or break it for the dollar pairs. One huge mistake I made today was trying to long USD/JPY while it was going against me. I’m still looking for a recovery bounce and will long USD/JPY overnight.
The dollar bears go for another leg down and the dollar pairs continues to make new record highs/lows. It’s looking tough for the dollar to find a support but it’ll be sooner or later. For now I’m scalping small moves within small time frames and waiting for a bigger macro moves within the market.
Right when we thought we would see the week finishing off with a strong dollar, the dollar bears continues to rage. I was at an awkward position because I secretly wanted to long the dollar due to not seeing the right R:R for dollar shorts. The market was essentially slow today and mainly had opportunities for short scalps. With that said, I think the dollar sell-off is not done and will see more selling through next week.
The week finished off with dollar going lower. USD/JPY made a new low as well with EUR/USD making new highs. I was definitely off with calling a dollar reversal and with the GBP/USD pullback. Although I do still feel like pound is readying itself for a pullback as well with the Yen. So instead of focusing on the dollar, I think next week I’ll focus on Yen longs and Pound shorts.
Today was the end of the month and Q2 which sometimes creates an interesting market. Many times during an end of a seasonal quarter, profit taking, position changing and other sorts of money allocation can take place. Throw in an upcoming holiday, the market had an awesome time stopping the dollar bear from going further. USD/JPY is continuing its move as EUR/USD and GBP/USD looks unstable. I’m not excited for a long holiday, however, I think the dollar bulls will continue next week despite of a low volatility.
I was hoping the dollar sell-off would continue but it was a rather quiet day. Threw in some EUR/USD and GBP/USD long trades and fooled around with USD/JPY shorts. All in all, was a boring and quiet day. Will wait for another snap in the market.
Trump ended the market in a surprise attack late afternoon when he claimed the dollar was too strong. The dollar is down about 0.5% since Trump’s comment and is still falling during Asia session. I don’t think the market will challenge Trump’s comment as a bluff and instead act accordingly, which is to sell the dollar before Trump takes actions to depreciate. In my opinion, the dollar is going to continue to fall and safe havens will continue to rally.
Today was one of the better days as my short dollar positions profited from Trump’s comment. Some may call it luck but there was definitely more than enough signs in the charts that dollar was looking for a leg down. This whole week I was selling dollar and today was one of the days luck was on my side.
The dollar is teetering with Trump and his Global issues. There’s tensions between North Korea, Russia, China, Syria, and other countries with unpredictable futures. Investors definitely do not like an unpredictable currency, therefore, it’s not surprising to see the USD/JPY fall hard and gold to gradually increase. For the near future, I definitely see safe havens having their moment of appreciation.
My outlook on dollar isn’t necessarily bearish, but it certainty isn’t bullish with the countries mercurial president. Yellen also stated that rate hikes will be gradual and the future is a bit foggy for now. I was able to get some good scalps on USD/JPY shorts today and I still think it has a lot more room to fall. For now, safe havens all the way.
Dollar is still on it’s grind and continuing to be relentless although pound has had a small rally. Movement was still small and price action was a bit too choppy for me to enter. I had one scalp in a GBP/USD long trade and then couldn’t find another signal to trade off of. This whole week would’ve been a great hold on a long dollar move.