The dollar bulls couldn’t find support from the CPI data as it fell short 0.1% vs 0.2% expected. USD/JPY is off to new lows, EUR/USD looks like it broke out of it’s down trend, and the dollar overall looks very weak. I’m skeptical on longing the dollar here, if anything, I’ll look for shorting opportunities.
The dollar had a down day today giving dollar baskets a breather. Tomorrow’s CPI data for the U.S. may rescue the dollar bulls or can end this reversal. USD/JPY broke some major support which may attract more sellers. I lost a few scalps on EUR/USD shorts and the pair is recovering. Next week should be interesting for the dollar, especially the USD/JPY.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came out almost as expected of 56.3 vs 56.4. With the help of the news, the dollar bulls gained some what of a breather from the huge downtrend we’ve been having. Many traders are looking to find the top of EUR/USD but the top still seems pretty foggy. We’ll need more days of dollar strength to have a comfortable top.
The dollar bears go for another leg down and the dollar pairs continues to make new record highs/lows. It’s looking tough for the dollar to find a support but it’ll be sooner or later. For now I’m scalping small moves within small time frames and waiting for a bigger macro moves within the market.
After such a heavy dollar sell off yesterday, the market had a tease with the market. By the end of today’s sell off, there were some strong dollar longs especially with USD/CAD and USD/CHF, which I mainly traded. Lets see if this trend holds for multiple days and continues on for next week. I’m suspicious but hopeful. Be cautious because it’s times like today where traders get trapped thinking there’s a full on reversal. I personally like to wait 3 days of continual strength for a confirmed reversal.
It’s been a hopeful opening week for the dollar and looks like a possible turning point. Especially in EUR/USD, price is at a major selling zone and there’s a lot of downward pressure. IF this week continues well for the dollar, there are TONS of pips to be gained.
EUR/USD is at a very important zone where a deep pullback is more than likely to happen. The ECB doesn’t favor a strong Euro and the Dollar does not reflect U.S.’s improving economy. Even if EUR/USD is destined to break out and rise above, I think a pullback is highly probable.
I caught a short position pretty early, but the speed of the fall rate is pretty slow. I have my stop loss in place and hopefully it falls south from here.
Many traders, not just me included, have been waiting for the dollar to bounce the past couple of days. EUR/USD especially is at a crucial zone where a reversal can be quite possible. Yellen hasn’t been the best at boosting the dollar during the conference but the U.S economy is surely improving. Right now I’m scalping the dollar dips and waiting for a confirmed reversal.
Employment data came out strong with 222k vs 178k expected. The U.S. is in a healthy recovery mode with unemployment decreasing. Only other data that needs to improve would be inflation and an increase in average hourly earnings. The dollar bulls are looking good so far, I’m hoping to see a pullback on EUR/USD. GBP/USD broke and USD/JPY’s going strong, only thing left is for EUR/USD to catch up.