Today was an usually chaotic day with prices snapping like rubber bands. The dollar went on a huge spike up then a spike down from late London crossing over to New York session. The dollar bears are still healthy while the bulls are attempting to keep pressure. The balances between the bulls and the bears. are definitely intense
Today was a light trading day to judge price action before a dollar freak out. I just wanted to judge the momentum that was left off from the weekend. Had a couple light EUR/USD and USD/CAD trades. Nothing too crazy.
I had a couple bad GBP/JPY trades in London session before the NFP released. Price action was a bit wonky and things stalled before NFP. A couple minutes before the data announcement I had a holding long GBP/USD trade, which would’ve been a juicy trade, but closed out to avoid slippage. The data ultimately came out to 138k new jobs vs 181k estimate and wrecked the dollar. With this huge selling momentum, the best thing to do is ride the wave and not to call bottoms.
The market has been volatile in the anticipation of the employment data tomorrow. Things have been very tricky to trade while I was at fault trying to force trades. Dollar seems to be in limbo with it reacting it differently among the variety pairs. Tomorrow will be interesting for the dollar.
It’s a short trading week due to the long Memorial day weekend, but it’ll be a volatile week with an employment data for May on Friday. The dollar looks like it’s holding it’s weight and attempting to hold it’s strength. There’s a high probability for an upcoming rate hike so it’ll be interesting to see how the dollar reacts in the anticipation.
The pullback finally happened after an extensive push by the dollar bears. This can be a momentary breather from the bears before the next leg down or it can be a start to the reversal fade. Will be keeping an eye out for possible big moves.
The biggest mover this week is the EUR/USD rally that has been showing no weakness since the last couple days. It’s been consistently making new highs while other dollar pairs has been stuck in limbo. Luckily, volume has been looking better today as USD/JPY finally snapped down with other dollar pairs to follow. Finding a bottom on dollar seems very risky now so looking to scalp the shorts.
Markets still haven’t been moving much during NY session. I haven’t had the time to trade London session but since the FOMC statement 2 weeks ago, volatility has been dull. Hopefully things start to pick up and break out soon. I’ll try to trade London session again if things are continuously slow.
I didn’t bother trading on Good Friday due to the really low volume. Unfortunately, the long EUR/USD position I was holding got stopped out and prices consolidated in a range. I had a really good feeling that the dollar pullback on Thursday-Friday was the result of low liquidity and that the dollar will continue further down. I should’ve been more aware of the low volume and played it safe, instead I went a bit more aggressive each time a trade would go against me.
Now that Easter’s over, the market’s liquidity is returning back to normal. If I held my short dollar positions from Thursday, I could’ve had a decent profit, but I didn’t want to take my chances. My outlook on dollar is still short, and hopefully we’ll see some movements again.
Dollar is still on it’s grind and continuing to be relentless although pound has had a small rally. Movement was still small and price action was a bit too choppy for me to enter. I had one scalp in a GBP/USD long trade and then couldn’t find another signal to trade off of. This whole week would’ve been a great hold on a long dollar move.